Canada could soon enter a historic demographic phase where immigration becomes the sole driver of population growth, according to new analysis and expert commentary on the country’s evolving population trends.
New projections linked to the federal Immigration Levels Plan suggest Canada may experience its second consecutive year of zero population growth in 2026, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer. With birth rates declining and the population aging, experts say natural population growth — the difference between births and deaths — is approaching zero.
Data from Statistics Canada shows that Canada’s population increased by roughly 816,000 people in 2024 due to temporary and permanent immigration, while natural population growth contributed only about 34,000 people.
Migration expert Dan Hiebert, a geography professor at the University of British Columbia, says the country is heading toward a situation that has never occurred before in Canadian history.
“Natural increase in Canada is going to hit zero really soon — maybe 2029 or 2030,” Hiebert said. “At that point, all population growth will be immigration-related. Wherever the government sets the immigration level, that will determine how much the population grows.”
A 2024 federal report examining the future of Canada’s immigration system also concluded that newcomers are expected to account for all population growth by 2032.
Immigration has long been a key driver of population increases in Canada, but the gap between immigration-driven growth and natural population growth has widened significantly over the past 25 years. In 2000, for example, about 148,000 immigrants arrived in Canada while natural population growth contributed around 110,000 people.
More recently, immigration surged following the COVID-19 pandemic, pushing Canada’s population growth rate to 3.1 per cent in 2023 — far above the long-term national average of roughly 1.1 per cent since 1972.
The federal government has since moved to slow population growth by reducing the number of newcomers, particularly temporary residents such as international students. Officials say the policy aims to ease pressure on housing, infrastructure and public services.
Housing economists say slower population growth could also influence the rental market. Rachel Battaglia, an economist with Royal Bank of Canada, said reduced immigration could soften rental demand, especially in major urban centres such as the Greater Toronto Area where many newcomers settle.
However, she noted that lower population growth can also discourage new housing construction by weakening demand.
“Fewer inflows of newcomers means reduced demand for housing,” Battaglia said, adding that affordability challenges remain severe compared with pre-pandemic levels.
Demographic changes are also affecting the country’s age structure. Younger immigrants helped slightly lower Canada’s median age from 41 years in 2022 to 40.3 years by 2024. But the trend reversed slightly last year, with the median age rising again to 40.6 years as the number of non-permanent residents declined.
Experts warn that Canada’s aging population could place increasing strain on the economy and public services. The country’s “old age dependency ratio” — the number of seniors compared with working-age adults — currently stands at about 29.5 people aged 65 or older for every 100 working-age individuals.
Hiebert’s projections suggest that if immigration levels lead to population growth of about 0.8 per cent annually, the ratio could rise to roughly 50 retirees for every 100 working-age Canadians within the next 50 years.
That shift could increase pressure on healthcare, pensions and other social programs while reducing the tax base supporting those services.
Hiebert said the changing demographic reality means Canada should adopt longer-term immigration planning rather than relying on the current three-year immigration planning cycle.
“So we’re racing toward the future without actually thinking of where we’re racing toward,” he said. “We don’t know what the finish line looks like.”