Ontario’s latest housing data paints a grim picture for Premier Doug Ford’s goal of building 1.5 million homes by 2031. Even after expanding its definition of “housing starts” to include student dorms, retirement suites, and long-term care beds, the province recorded just 94,753 units in 2024 — far short of the 125,000 needed last year to stay on track.
The tally includes 73,462 traditional housing starts, 14,381 additional residential units, 2,278 long-term care beds, 2,807 post-secondary student housing beds, and 1,825 retirement home suites. In 2023, Ontario reached its target of 110,000 by factoring in long-term care beds, but this year’s pace has already raised alarms, with first-quarter 2025 starts at their lowest since 2009.
Industry leaders say conditions are the worst in decades. Dave Wilkes, president and CEO of the Building Industry and Land Development Association, warns that sluggish home sales and mounting costs could trigger layoffs for up to 40 per cent of construction workers, drawing comparisons to the early 1990s downturn.
The province insists progress is being made, citing multi-billion-dollar funds for housing-enabling infrastructure and incentives for municipalities that meet construction targets. However, only 23 of 50 cities hit at least 80 per cent of their assigned goals last year — a steep drop from 32 the year before.
Critics argue the Ford government is resisting key solutions, such as province-wide zoning changes to allow more gentle density like fourplexes, standardized rules for modular housing, and greater investment in affordable, non-profit, and co-op housing. Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner says the numbers reflect “the worst housing crisis in Ontario history,” leaving a generation of young people unsure if they’ll ever own a home.