Diesel expected to see sharper increase as global oil markets react
Ontario drivers are being warned to prepare for higher fuel costs following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, a key oil-producing nation.
Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, says diesel prices could rise as early as Tuesday, with a larger jump anticipated midweek.
McTeague expects diesel prices in Ontario to increase by about 13 cents per litre on Wednesday, though some stations may begin adjusting prices sooner. He advises drivers of diesel-powered vehicles to fill up before the increases take effect.
Gasoline prices are also projected to climb, though less sharply. A six-cent-per-litre increase is forecast for Wednesday, which would bring average morning prices in the Greater Toronto Area to approximately 143.9 cents per litre. Evening prices and rates outside major urban centres are typically lower.
The more pronounced impact on diesel, McTeague says, is tied to the type of crude oil involved. Iran produces heavy crude oil, which — like Canadian heavy oil — is commonly used in diesel production. The United States relies in part on imports of heavy oil, including supplies from Canada, to meet refining needs.
Diesel plays a critical role in powering transportation fleets, heavy industry and certain military equipment, as well as in the production of jet fuel. That demand can amplify price volatility when supply concerns arise.
While the immediate effect on gasoline prices appears relatively contained, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. Much will depend on how the conflict unfolds and how global markets respond in the coming days and weeks.
“Markets are acting in a very conservative way right now,” McTeague noted, suggesting that while consumers may see moderate increases initially, additional price pressure could build gradually.
For drivers looking to manage costs, McTeague recommends purchasing fuel in the evening, when retailers often narrow profit margins. Prices also tend to be lower outside the GTA and other major cities.
Consumers can monitor local fuel prices through online tracking tools such as GasBuddy and Ontario’s motor fuel price reports.
As geopolitical tensions ripple through energy markets, Ontario motorists may soon feel the effects at the pump — particularly those relying on diesel.