Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing renewed calls to step aside after his Liberal Party lost a long-held Montreal stronghold in a special election on Monday night. This marks the second consecutive by-election defeat for the Liberals, further complicating Trudeau’s leadership as the party continues to trail the Conservatives by a wide margin in national polls.
Despite mounting losses, Trudeau has insisted that he has no plans to resign, stating before the election that he is committed to leading the party. However, the latest defeat is expected to intensify internal pressure on the prime minister, with political observers predicting the loss will embolden dissenters within the Liberal caucus.
“This loss is another nail in the coffin,” said Lori Turnbull, a Canadian political analyst and professor at Dalhousie University. “It will be difficult for the Liberals to shake the narrative that the government’s time is up.”
The defeat came in the riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, a seat formerly held by prominent Liberals, including former Prime Minister Paul Martin before it was redistricted. Bloc Québécois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé secured victory with 28 percent of the vote, narrowly defeating the Liberal candidate, who garnered 27.2 percent.
This loss follows a similar defeat in downtown Toronto earlier this year, where the Liberals lost to the Conservatives, further heating up the debate over Trudeau’s leadership. Trudeau, who has led the Liberals since 2015, spent much of the summer in one-on-one meetings with concerned MPs, attempting to reassure them of his leadership as the party grapples with declining support.
Notably absent from the campaign signs of Liberal candidate Laura Palestini was the Trudeau name, a reflection of the prime minister’s waning popularity in Quebec. The loss in Montreal could empower Trudeau’s internal critics and spark leadership challenges from within the caucus.
Trudeau’s leadership has already taken several hits, including the resignation of his national campaign director and rumors that a top minister in Quebec may leave federal politics to run provincially. The departure of the NDP from a previous agreement to support the Liberal minority government further complicates matters, increasing the likelihood of an earlier federal election, which had been scheduled for fall 2025.
The special election result adds to growing dissatisfaction within the Liberal ranks, particularly as the country faces ongoing economic challenges, including housing shortages and rising costs of living. Last week, Liberal MPs gathered in British Columbia to confront public frustrations with the government’s handling of these crises.
Adding to the complexity of the election campaign was a protest related to the Gaza conflict. More than 50 political staffers refused to back the Liberal candidate, criticizing Trudeau’s stance on the conflict and demanding that his government condemn Israel’s actions. The protest led to a bloated ballot with 91 candidates, causing delays in the election results.
Despite the mounting challenges, Trudeau remains defiant. He recently told a radio station in Montreal, “I’m not going anywhere,” expressing his excitement to face off against his Conservative rival, Pierre Poilievre. However, as political analyst Turnbull noted, Trudeau has little choice but to remain steadfast. “Once he signals he’s stepping aside, he loses all authority,” she said.
As Trudeau attempts to hold onto power, the by-election loss is the latest in a series of blows to the prime minister, casting further doubt on his ability to lead the party into the next federal election.