After what party insiders call a “terrible disappointment,” Canada’s Conservatives are trying to reset following their unexpected defeat in the 2025 federal election and the loss of leader Pierre Poilievre’s own seat.
Just a year earlier, the party appeared poised for a landslide. Polls showed the Conservatives holding a massive lead over the Liberals, Justin Trudeau was under intense pressure to resign, and Poilievre was widely seen as the next prime minister. But the political landscape shifted dramatically with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Trudeau’s resignation, and the rapid rise of new Liberal leader Mark Carney.
Carney’s decision to scrap the consumer carbon tax and his focus on managing U.S. trade tensions reshaped the campaign, turning it into a tight two-party race. The April election ended with a Liberal victory — and a stunning defeat for Poilievre in his Carleton riding.
Since then, Poilievre has returned to Parliament after winning a byelection in Alberta and is working to broaden his appeal following internal criticism and recent caucus defections. Party strategists say lessons have been learned, including the need to engage more broadly with voters and media, while staying focused on core Conservative issues such as affordability, housing, crime, and immigration.
Despite being a polarizing figure, Poilievre retains strong loyalty among supporters and is expected to survive a mandatory leadership review at the party’s January convention. Whether he can convert that support into a future victory, analysts say, will depend largely on how long the Liberals remain in power — and how effectively Conservatives rebuild after a bruising year.