Ontario drivers may soon see relief at the pumps after another short-term price jump this weekend, with analysts forecasting a sharp decline in gasoline prices beginning Sunday and accelerating Monday.
According to fuel analyst Dan McTeague, gasoline prices are expected to rise by nine cents per litre on Saturday before falling seven cents on Sunday and another 11 cents on Monday.
That would bring the expected peak pump price in the Greater Toronto Area to roughly 164.9 cents per litre by Monday morning, offering some welcome relief after weeks of volatility.
The projected drop follows a major decline in global oil prices on Friday after Iranian officials announced the Strait of Hormuz had fully reopened to shipping traffic.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy corridors, carrying a large share of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports. Any disruption in the waterway often triggers immediate price increases in fuel markets worldwide.
Despite comments from Donald Trump that U.S. restrictions on Iranian shipping would remain in place until a broader agreement is reached, benchmark crude prices still fell sharply. Brent crude dropped about nine per cent in Friday trading, easing pressure on wholesale fuel costs.
McTeague says Ontario drivers should avoid filling up before Monday if possible, as the largest savings are expected once weekend increases are reversed and a new federal tax measure takes effect.
Starting April 20, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s temporary federal gas excise tax holiday will begin, removing 10 cents per litre from gasoline and four cents per litre from diesel. Once sales tax impacts are included, the savings are expected to be about 11 cents per litre for gasoline.
Diesel prices are also forecast to decline after a small Saturday increase. McTeague expects diesel to fall sharply Sunday and continue lower Monday, though he notes some stations may delay full reductions depending on when they purchased inventory.
Part of Saturday’s increase is also tied to the seasonal switch to summer gasoline blends, which cost more to refine and are required at this time of year.
Even with the coming drop, analysts warn fuel markets remain vulnerable. Global inventories are tight, geopolitical risks remain elevated and any renewed disruption in the Middle East could quickly reverse the trend.
For motorists in Ontario, the immediate takeaway is simple: if you can wait, Monday may be the better day to fill the tank.