The ongoing trade war between Canada and the United States remained one of the most consequential and closely watched stories of 2025, with wide-ranging effects on politics, the economy, and national identity. Its significance was underscored when it was named The Canadian Press News Story of the Year.
Defined by shifting tariff rates, unclear timelines, and conflicting political messages, the dispute has proven difficult for Canadians to follow. As the calendar turns to 2026, trade talks remain stalled and no agreement has been reached.
Negotiations broke down in October after U.S. President Donald Trump objected to an Ontario government advertising campaign that cited remarks by former U.S. president Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. Since then, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said Canada is prepared to resume talks when the United States is ready, while also cautioning against rushing into a deal.
Against this backdrop, INsauga.com asked readers for their views on the future of the dispute. A poll published on Dec. 10 posed a simple question: Do you think Mark Carney will be able to secure a tariff deal with Donald Trump?
The poll drew approximately 4,700 responses. A clear majority — 3,120 respondents, or about 66.4 per cent — said they do not believe a deal will be reached. Meanwhile, 1,580 readers, or roughly 33.6 per cent, expressed optimism that an agreement is possible.
Despite the pessimism reflected in the poll, the trade dispute is expected to continue evolving in the year ahead. Currently, goods that comply with the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement remain exempt from tariffs. However, that agreement is scheduled for review in 2026, and Trump has recently warned he could withdraw from it if his demands are not met.
As negotiations remain unresolved, Canadians can expect the trade war — and its political and economic consequences — to stay firmly in the spotlight in the months ahead.