MISSISSAUGA, ON — The battle to lead Mississauga is shaping up as a dramatic showdown between two of the city’s most familiar political figures, with a new poll showing former mayor Bonnie Crombie and incumbent Mayor Carolyn Parrish locked in a dead heat just over two months before voters head to the polls.
A Liaison Strategies poll conducted this week puts Crombie and Parrish at 36 per cent each among decided and leaning voters, suggesting neither candidate has been able to establish a clear advantage as the October 26 municipal election approaches.
The race becomes even more intriguing when all respondents are included. Crombie and Parrish each receive 26 per cent support, while another 26 per cent of voters remain undecided.
That large pool of undecided voters could ultimately determine who occupies the mayor’s office.
“The more important number may be undecided,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies. “That is a very large movable electorate in a municipal race and Undecided, if it were a candidate, would be tied with Crombie and Parrish.”
The contest brings together two politicians with extensive histories in Mississauga politics. Crombie previously served as mayor before leaving municipal office to become leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, while Parrish succeeded her as mayor.
Although the two leading candidates dominate the race, Councillors Dipika Damerla and Alvin Tedjo remain part of the picture.
Damerla, in particular, appears to be gaining momentum. While she continues to trail the two front-runners by double digits, the latest results show her support has more than doubled since Liaison’s previous Mississauga poll in October.
In that earlier survey, Crombie led Parrish 38 per cent to 33 per cent, while Tedjo stood at 12 per cent and Damerla at just seven per cent.
Damerla has now climbed to nearly one in five decided and leaning voters, according to Valentin, potentially adding another important dynamic to what initially appeared to be primarily a two-person contest.
The poll also suggests provincial political endorsements may not provide much help to candidates hoping to gain ground.
Only 15 per cent of respondents said they would be more likely to support a mayoral candidate endorsed by Ontario Premier Doug Ford, indicating that an association with Queen’s Park could have limited appeal among Mississauga voters in this campaign.
The numbers present additional challenges for Parrish as the incumbent.
According to the survey, 46 per cent of respondents believe Mississauga is moving in the wrong direction, while 42 per cent disapprove of Parrish’s performance as mayor.
Her approval rating has declined seven percentage points compared with the previous poll, while disapproval has increased by two points. Her net approval has consequently shifted from plus five to minus four.
“That gives any challenger room to argue that the city needs a change,” Valentin said.
Those numbers could provide Crombie and the other challengers with an opening to frame the election as a referendum on the current direction of Mississauga.
At the same time, Crombie faces the challenge of convincing voters that returning a former mayor to the city’s top political position represents the best path forward.
The issues driving the campaign are also changing.
Affordability has emerged as the leading concern among Mississauga voters, cited by 19 per cent of respondents. Taxes follow closely at 17 per cent, while housing stands at 16 per cent.
Crime, which topped the list of concerns in Liaison’s October poll at 29 per cent, has fallen significantly and is now identified as the most important issue by 13 per cent of respondents.
The shift suggests pocketbook concerns could play a decisive role in the campaign, placing pressure on candidates to explain how they would address the cost of living, property taxes and housing affordability.
With Parrish and Crombie tied and more than a quarter of voters still undecided, the election remains wide open.
Parrish has the advantage of incumbency but faces declining approval numbers and concerns about the city’s direction. Crombie brings extensive name recognition and experience as a former mayor but must persuade voters to return her to an office she previously left. Damerla’s growing support adds another potential factor capable of reshaping the race.
“Overall, this is a race with a vulnerable incumbent, a familiar former mayor, and a lot of undecided voters,” Valentin said. “Parrish is not out of contention, but the numbers show she has work to do.”
Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Mississauga residents between August 11 and 12 using Interactive Voice Response technology. The results were weighted using 2021 Census targets and carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
With voting day set for October 26, the biggest candidate in Mississauga’s mayoral race may therefore be no candidate at all: the large bloc of residents who have yet to make up their minds.