An unexpected win in the Haryana state elections has given India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a short-term boost, but analysts warn that the upcoming state polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand could present major challenges to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and the cohesion of his coalition government.
India’s election commission has scheduled state polls in Jharkhand for November 13 and in Maharashtra for November 20. Analysts believe these elections will set the stage for crucial state contests in Delhi and Bihar next year.
The stakes are particularly high for Modi and the BJP, which have become increasingly dependent on regional allies after losing their outright majority in this year’s national elections. Political experts suggest that setbacks in Maharashtra and Jharkhand could not only deepen internal scrutiny of Modi’s leadership but also push the party’s coalition partners to reconsider their support.
“The BJP’s alliance in Maharashtra is facing an uphill battle, given its poor performance in the recent parliamentary elections,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an independent political commentator. “Modi’s appeal is usually stronger in national elections, but local issues dominate state polls.”
The political dynamics in Maharashtra have been complicated by splits within two major regional parties—the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Uddhav Thackeray and veteran politician Sharad Pawar, both influential figures in their factions, have solidified their positions since the national elections. In contrast, the BJP alliance won just 17 out of 48 parliamentary seats in the state, a significant drop from its previous tally of 41 seats in 2019.
Mukhopadhyay suggests that the opposition alliance should project Uddhav Thackeray as its chief ministerial candidate, given his popularity. Sharad Pawar, known for his astute political maneuvering, has been gathering support to unseat the BJP alliance.
Meanwhile, the BJP faces another stiff challenge in Jharkhand, where the incumbent coalition led by the regional Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Congress party remains in power. Chief Minister Hemant Soren, who was recently released on bail in a money laundering case, could see a surge in public sympathy due to the perceived political nature of the charges against him.
However, Mukhopadhyay cautions that the opposition must avoid the internal divisions that cost them the Haryana elections. The Congress party’s decision not to ally with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) allowed the BJP to narrowly retain power in Haryana, despite an anti-incumbency wave. Analysts argue that a Congress-AAP alliance in Haryana could have given them a decisive edge in urban areas.
Political observers are now turning their attention to next year’s Delhi state elections, where the BJP is expected to face stiff competition from AAP, led by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Kejriwal, recently released on bail in a corruption case involving a controversial liquor policy, resigned from his post but indicated he would run for re-election.
Mukhopadhyay points out that Kejriwal’s strategy of presenting himself as a populist reformer could be a counter to Modi’s emotional appeals to the Hindu majority. “Kejriwal is a real challenger to Modi when it comes to rhetoric and theatrics. The Delhi elections could give Modi a taste of his own medicine,” Mukhopadhyay said.
The BJP’s ability to navigate the political landscape in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will have significant implications for the party’s future and Modi’s leadership as they prepare for more key state elections in 2025.