As the Ontario Liberal Party prepares for a pivotal weekend decision on whether to keep Bonnie Crombie as leader, a new Pallas Data poll reveals no clear consensus among Ontarians—or Liberal supporters—on the question of leadership.
The poll shows Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives leading with 45 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared to 26 per cent for the Liberals and 17 per cent for the NDP. That marks a modest gain for the PCs since the last election, while both the Liberals and NDP have slipped.
While 30 per cent of Ontarians said they are “very open” to voting Liberal in the future, the party faces a tricky balancing act. Among those open to supporting the Liberals, some view Crombie’s leadership as too far to the right, while others see it as too far left.
When asked whether the party should hold a leadership race, Ontarians were split. Eighteen per cent said Crombie should remain leader because they like her, while another 17 per cent argued the party doesn’t need distractions. Fourteen per cent felt a race would invigorate the party, and 22 per cent said the Liberals need a different leader altogether. Among Liberal supporters, loyalty to Crombie was higher, though a notable minority still favoured change.
On key issues, Crombie lags behind Ford but maintains competitive footing against NDP leader Marit Stiles. Ford is still seen by more voters as the best premier overall, as well as the strongest on economic issues. Crombie polled more closely on health care, where 22 per cent of respondents picked her compared to 23 per cent for Stiles and 28 per cent for Ford.
Yet the challenge for Crombie extends beyond policy. When voters were asked about personal impressions, the PC attack ads branding her “expensive” resonated most, chosen by 31 per cent of respondents. Crombie’s own message highlighting her business background was picked by just 18 per cent, while the NDP’s framing of her as “Doug Ford lite” landed with only 8 per cent.
When given a list of potential alternatives, Crombie remained the top choice, with 18 per cent saying she should lead the party into the next election. Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, former MP Navdeep Bains and MP Karina Gould each drew about 6 per cent, while 46 per cent said they didn’t know who they would prefer.
The findings leave Ontario Liberals at a crossroads: while Crombie remains the most recognizable option, enthusiasm for her leadership appears tepid, and the search for a breakthrough figure continues.