Tight Race Emerges in Pierre Poilievre’s Carleton Riding as Liberals Gain Momentum
In Pierre Poilievre’s long-held Carleton riding, a closer-than-expected race is shaping up as Liberal supporters rally behind their candidate Bruce Fanjoy, while Conservative loyalists remain confident of retaining the seat.
Reports from both The Globe and Mail and Toronto Star last week indicated that the Conservatives had dispatched additional staff to Carleton, suggesting that the party is taking no chances in what insiders describe as a potentially tighter contest.
For longtime Carleton residents Bob and June Neske, this election marks a turning point. Once consistent Conservative voters, the retired military couple is now backing Fanjoy, citing their disillusionment with Poilievre, particularly after his support for the 2022 convoy protest in Ottawa. “I would like to see Pierre Poilievre be gone from politics,” Bob Neske said. “Bruce is a super nice guy… We’ve been out canvassing almost every single day since the beginning.”
The couple emphasized they would not be voting Liberal if Justin Trudeau were still leading the party, underlining that their support is rooted more in local candidate appeal than party loyalty.
Despite the shifting sentiment among some former Conservative voters, others are unwavering. Mike Medeiros, a local mushroom farmer and longtime Poilievre supporter, said he feels confident the Conservative leader will hold his seat once again.
“I don’t know if it’s that close, maybe it is,” Medeiros said, while acknowledging the unusually high number of protest candidates running in Carleton this year. Affordability concerns remain at the forefront for Medeiros, who credits Poilievre for consistently supporting local businesses like his mushroom farm. “Throughout the summer you’ll see [Poilievre] in the riding. He’ll pop in and buy some mushrooms once in a while… he’s definitely a great supporter of our local community,” he said.
Meanwhile, Elections Canada data shows that Carleton experienced the highest advance voting turnout in the country, with nearly 44,000 ballots already cast—over 40 percent of registered voters.
Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy remains optimistic, suggesting that the momentum on the ground could lead to a surprise result. “People will discover on election night that this is going to be a very close race,” Fanjoy said.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, Poilievre added a rally in Carleton to his schedule on Sunday night, a move his team insists was planned out of enthusiasm, not concern. The Conservative leader did not respond to CBC’s request for comment.
Along with Fanjoy and Poilievre, the ballot in Carleton also features NDP candidate Beth Prokaska and Green Party candidate Mark Watson.
With signs for both major candidates now lining rural roads and residents bracing for a close finish, Carleton is emerging as one of the most closely watched battlegrounds of the 2025 election.