Voters across Ontario are heading to the polls today, fully aware that their province will play a decisive role in electing Canada’s next prime minister. With 122 of the country’s 343 ridings located in Ontario, the province holds more than one-third of the seats needed to form government.
The 2025 federal election sees parties of all stripes zeroing in on Ontario, particularly the seat-rich suburbs surrounding Toronto, often seen as the key battleground to winning power. Historically, the Liberals have performed strongly in these areas, securing near-sweeps in Toronto and its suburbs in recent elections. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have traditionally dominated rural Ontario, and the NDP has maintained strongholds in Northern Ontario and unionized regions of the west. The Greens held one seat, Kitchener Centre, prior to dissolution.
Polling heading into election day suggests a tight race nationally but indicates a Liberal advantage in Ontario. An Ipsos Global Affairs poll released in the final week showed the Liberals polling at 44 per cent in Ontario, ahead of the Conservatives at 36 per cent. The NDP trailed at 13 per cent, with the People’s Party at four per cent and the Greens at two per cent.
Nationally, the same poll had the Liberals leading the Conservatives by three points, a margin within the survey’s error range. In 2021, Ontario split the popular vote relatively evenly between the two parties — the Liberals secured 39 per cent, and the Conservatives won 35 per cent — but the Liberals translated that into a commanding lead in seats, winning 78 ridings compared to 37 for the Conservatives and five for the NDP.
Electoral boundaries have shifted since the last election, with Ontario gaining an additional seat, potentially affecting how today’s votes will convert into riding wins.
Advance polling numbers hint at heightened engagement. Elections Canada reported that 2.8 million Ontarians voted early, an increase of more than 560,000 over 2021’s advance poll turnout.
The Greater Toronto Area and surrounding 905 suburbs, considered the most competitive and crucial areas, remain key to determining the election’s outcome. Although the Liberals have dominated these regions federally since 2015, provincially, many suburban ridings are now held by Progressive Conservative MPPs, showing their swing potential.
Throughout the campaign, both Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre focused heavily on Ontario, visiting critical ridings. Carney made stops in Windsor, Scarborough, and Cambridge, while Poilievre attracted large crowds in Vaughan, Kingston, and Brampton.
Polling stations across Ontario are open from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. as Canadians head to the ballot box in what promises to be one of the most pivotal elections in recent memory.