More than seven in 10 Canadians believe a future U.S. invasion of Canada is a real possibility, according to a new national survey by Toronto-based GEF Consulting Inc.
The poll of 1,000 Canadians, conducted this month, suggests growing anxiety driven by recent geopolitical developments, including heightened trade tensions and U.S. military actions abroad. Respondents cited the Trump administration’s sudden invasion of Venezuela and President Donald Trump’s public rhetoric about annexing Greenland as key factors fueling concern.
GEF Consulting says fear of a U.S. invasion has risen nearly seven percentage points since October 2025, when 66 per cent of Canadians expressed similar worries. The latest results show more than 70 per cent now believe such a scenario could occur.
Confidence in Canada’s ability to defend itself is low. Nearly 80 per cent of respondents said Canada’s military would be easily outmaneuvered by U.S. forces in the event of an invasion.
Two-thirds of those surveyed believe a U.S. invasion would likely take place before the end of Trump’s presidency, while nearly eight per cent think it could happen within the next five years.
When asked about potential invasion routes, respondents most frequently identified the Ontario–New York border (50 per cent), followed by the Ontario–Michigan border (34 per cent) and the British Columbia–Washington border (33 per cent).
Canadians also expressed concern about economic fallout. The energy sector was identified as most vulnerable in the event of an invasion, followed by food and agriculture, and financial services.
GEF Consulting said it continues to track Canadian public opinion as geopolitical tensions evolve.
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