As the federal election campaign enters its third week, a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News reveals that the Liberal Party has opened up a commanding 12-point lead over the Conservatives, placing them firmly in majority government territory if the vote were held today.
The poll shows 46% of decided Canadian voters say they would vote for the Liberal Party, up two points from last week. The Conservatives fell four points to 34%, while support for the NDP rose slightly to 10%. The Green Party and Bloc Québécois also gained marginal ground.
Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker noted the numbers reflect a sharp reversal of fortunes from just a year ago, when the Liberals were trailing the Conservatives by double digits under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. With Mark Carney now at the helm, the Liberals appear to be surging ahead, buoyed by strong leadership during a turbulent economic period.
“This level of national support firmly places the Liberals in majority-government territory,” Ipsos stated in its release.
The poll results also show that 45% of Canadians believe Carney is the best choice for Prime Minister, up one point from last week, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre dropped to 32%. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh saw a modest bump to 12%, marking his highest rating so far in the campaign.
Carney’s rise in support comes despite having to pause his campaign twice last week to respond to emergency trade discussions following the imposition of new U.S. tariffs by President Donald Trump. The Prime Minister convened high-level meetings with provincial premiers and his cabinet before introducing countermeasures to safeguard Canadian interests. Following a direct phone call with Trump on March 28, tensions appeared to ease, with no new tariffs announced during the U.S. President’s controversial “Liberation Day” trade speech.
Meanwhile, the poll found that 53% of Canadians say they are certain about their vote, and 16% say they’ve changed their party preference within the past four weeks — a sign of growing momentum in the Liberal camp.
The latest results also highlight that:
- 47% of Canadians believe the Liberals deserve re-election, up from 43% last week.
- 69% of voters said they are hopeful for a majority government, citing election fatigue and a desire for stability.
- An overwhelming 90% agree that this election is “critical for Canada’s future.”
Perhaps most strikingly, Canada-U.S. relations have become the second-most important issue for voters, behind only the cost of living and affordability. The Liberals were seen as the best party to handle U.S. relations, leading the Conservatives by a staggering 40-point margin on the issue.
This Ipsos poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ between April 1 and April 3, 2025. It carries a credibility interval of ±3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
As the campaign trail heats up and pressure mounts on all federal parties, the latest data indicates growing confidence in Mark Carney’s leadership and a possible path to a Liberal majority government in the weeks ahead.