Millions of Canadians are heading to the polls today in a high-stakes federal election shaped by concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and calls to annex Canada as the 51st state.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, leading the Liberal Party, called the snap election in March after succeeding former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. His chief rival is Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, as both parties fight for control of Parliament. At the time Parliament was dissolved, the Liberals held 152 seats, the Conservatives 120, the Bloc Québécois 33, the New Democratic Party 24, and the Greens 2.
More than seven million Canadians have already voted during advance polls, setting a new turnout record. Voting began Monday morning at 7:00 EDT, and results are expected to start rolling in late tonight or early Tuesday morning.
Preliminary vote counts will come from Elections Canada, and major media outlets like CBC are expected to project winners once enough votes are counted. However, all ballots are counted by hand after polls close, and vote totals are double-checked in the days following election night.
Polls close first in Newfoundland and Labrador at 7:00 p.m. EDT and last in British Columbia at 10:00 p.m. EDT. The bulk of Canada’s seats — particularly in Ontario and Quebec — will close at 9:30 p.m. EDT, a critical window that could signal whether the Liberals or Conservatives have secured an early lead. A big swing in eastern Canada could result in an earlier call, but if results are tight, it may take longer to determine whether a minority or majority government has been elected.
Ballots cast during advance voting are typically counted immediately after polls close, although heavy volumes this year mean some may start being tabulated slightly earlier. Mail-in ballots and votes from military bases could take longer but are not expected to delay the final outcome significantly.
Ontario and Quebec, which together account for 200 of Parliament’s 343 seats, will be decisive. The Toronto-area suburbs — known as the “905” — are particularly critical, with 31 ridings hotly contested between Liberals and Conservatives. Attention will also focus on the Ottawa area, where Mark Carney is seeking election in Nepean and Pierre Poilievre is defending his seat in Carleton.
If no party wins a majority, the party with the most seats will attempt to form a minority government, requiring cooperation from other parties to pass legislation.
Should the Liberals win, Carney will continue as Prime Minister without the need for a new swearing-in. However, if the Conservatives prevail, Poilievre is expected to be sworn in within about two weeks — following a timeline similar to when Justin Trudeau replaced Stephen Harper in 2015.
As Canadians cast their ballots, the outcome of today’s vote will not only shape Canada’s domestic future but also define its response to growing challenges from its southern neighbor.