A sharp blast of winter is expected to grip much of Canada in the coming weeks, with meteorologists predicting an abrupt and colder-than-usual start to the season. According to the Weather Network’s latest outlook, December will usher in a “more traditional Canadian winter,” complete with frigid Arctic air, temperature swings and above-normal snowfall in many regions.
Meteorologist Doug Gillham says the country should prepare for a markedly colder December and January than in recent years. While this winter isn’t expected to be historically extreme, it will be noticeably harsher than the unusually warm seasons Canadians have grown accustomed to. “Winter will show up this year, and it’s going to show up in a big way,” Gillham said.
Two major climate factors are driving the outlook. The first is a disruption of the polar vortex, a band of powerful winds high above the Arctic that normally traps frigid air near the pole. A warming event in that upper atmosphere is expected to weaken the vortex, letting much colder air spill south into Canada through December and January. The second is a weak La Niña, a Pacific Ocean pattern that typically brings stormier, colder conditions across much of the country.
Together, these forces increase the risk of extended cold snaps and stormy periods, Gillham said. It’s promising news for winter sports enthusiasts, but a strong signal for the rest of the country to be ready for harsher conditions. “If you thought you could skip the snow tires this year,” he added, “you may want to reconsider.”
Even as winter temperatures have warmed overall in recent decades due to climate change, the Weather Network bases its seasonal comparisons on a more recent climate normal from 1991 to 2020. Against that benchmark, most regions are expected to see near or below-normal temperatures and near or above-normal snowfall.
Western Canada will see a mix of typical and colder patterns. B.C.’s south coast, including Vancouver and Victoria, is expected to hover near seasonal norms, though storms and temperature swings are still likely. Snowfall should be heavier than usual in the southern Rockies and Kootenays. Alberta is expected to have a mostly colder-than-normal season, with Calgary and central regions seeing the greatest snow totals.
The chilliest signals show up in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where blasts of Arctic air may be especially intense. Some of that cold may persist into March, which could help maintain snowpack and reduce early-season wildfire risk. Snowfall in the Prairies is expected to be close to normal, with the exception of above-normal totals in parts of southwestern Saskatchewan.
In Ontario and Quebec, the early arrival of winter will deepen in December, bringing more sustained cold than the region has seen in recent years. Southern areas of both provinces are expected to see above-normal snow, particularly leading into the holiday season. Later in the season, conditions may become more variable, but the first half of winter is forecast to be decidedly cold and snowy.
Atlantic Canada will experience back-and-forth temperatures, with cold spells early on but milder periods that may offset seasonal averages. Newfoundland and parts of Nova Scotia may even see below-normal snowfall—although in traditionally snowy places like St. John’s, “below normal” still means plenty of snow.
In the territories, temperatures will be near normal in Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and southern Nunavut, with northern Nunavut expected to be warmer than usual due to polar vortex disruptions.
The overall outlook is good for skiers in the Rockies, southern Ontario and southern Quebec, where holiday conditions are expected to be excellent. The challenge, Gillham notes, may be navigating the roads to get there, given the possibility of potent lake-effect snow and squalls.
As for a white Christmas, Gillham says it’s still too early for a definitive call, but the strong early start to winter increases the likelihood. “More of Canada than usual should see a white Christmas,” he said, though local variations will still apply.
One thing is clear: December will live up to the forecast slogan — a month Canadians are unlikely to forget.