Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada cannot completely rule out military participation in the rapidly escalating conflict in the Middle East, as fighting between Iran, Israel and the United States continues to intensify.
Speaking during a joint press conference in Sydney alongside Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Carney said Canada would stand with its allies if circumstances required.
“One can never categorically rule out participation,” Carney told reporters. “We will stand by our allies when it makes sense.”
The conflict has entered its fifth day with continued airstrikes on Iranian cities by Israel and the United States. Iran has responded with missile barrages and drone attacks targeting Israel and U.S. allies across the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has warned of the potential “complete destruction of the region’s military and economic infrastructure” if the conflict continues to escalate.
Canada Focused on Supporting Citizens in Region
Canada’s immediate focus, however, remains assisting thousands of Canadians currently in the Middle East.
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand confirmed that more than 2,000 Canadians have requested help to leave the region as tensions continue to rise.
Ottawa is arranging several evacuation options including charter flights, block bookings on commercial airlines, and ground transportation routes for Canadians attempting to exit the conflict zone.
On Wednesday alone, 75 Canadians were able to leave Beirut on a flight arranged with government assistance.
Canadians in Israel face additional challenges because airspace remains closed. Officials say some citizens are using ground transportation routes into Egypt before securing flights home.
In Iran, however, Canadian officials say their ability to help is limited due to the absence of diplomatic relations with the country.
Global Energy Markets and Oil Prices Impacted
The war is also beginning to have major economic consequences worldwide.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, pushing global oil prices higher. The price of Brent crude briefly surged above US$84 per barrel — more than $10 higher than before the conflict began.
Rising energy prices are already being felt by drivers in Canada, where analysts warn gas prices could continue to climb if the crisis deepens.
NATO Involvement Considered Unlikely
Despite Carney’s comments, some defence experts believe Canadian military involvement remains unlikely unless the conflict expands further.
Retired Canadian major-general and former NATO commander David Fraser said NATO’s collective defence clause — Article 5 — would only be triggered if a member state were directly attacked and requested assistance.
Even then, he suggested political divisions within NATO could complicate a joint response.
“There’s always a likelihood of ‘could,’ but the reality of ‘will’ is probably unlikely,” Fraser said.
Canadians Divided Over Iran Strikes
Public opinion in Canada also appears sharply split.
A recent survey by the Angus Reid Institute found that 49 per cent of Canadians oppose the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, while about 34 per cent support the military action.
The poll also highlights political and demographic divisions, with Conservative voters and men more likely to support the campaign than other groups.
Political Debate Intensifies
Meanwhile, criticism of the government’s stance is emerging from opposition politicians.
Conservative foreign affairs critic Michael Chong said the government’s position appears contradictory.
Carney, however, defended his approach, saying the situation remains volatile and complex.
“We absolutely stand by the fundamental principle that Iran should not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon,” the prime minister said.
As the war expands and global tensions rise, Canada’s role — diplomatic, humanitarian or potentially military — remains closely watched.