Global gold miners are poised for a spectacular earnings season as record-breaking bullion prices send profits soaring and investors reap the rewards of the precious metal’s historic rally.
According to data compiled by LSEG, the world’s two largest producers, Newmont and Barrick Gold, are expected to post a combined profit of nearly US$3 billion for the third quarter — more than double last year’s US$1.4 billion. Gold prices averaged US$3,574.95 per ounce between July and September, up 43.5 per cent year-over-year, and surged past US$4,000 this month for the first time ever. Some analysts are already predicting a potential climb to US$5,000 per ounce in 2026.
Analysts say the sector’s strong performance stems from steady production, improved efficiency, and restrained cost inflation. However, Stifel analysts warned that rising contractor fees, royalties, and taxes — all tied to higher gold prices — could pose future challenges.
For now, miners and shareholders alike are celebrating a golden run. Newmont returned US$1 billion to investors last quarter and announced a US$3 billion share buyback program, saying it remains committed to delivering consistent dividends and aggressive repurchases. Barrick, meanwhile, paid a dividend of 15 cents per share and distributed US$753 million in the first half of 2025.
“We forecast most producers will move into a net cash position by the third quarter,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets, noting that large-cap miners are likely to continue their buyback momentum amid sharp share price gains. Newmont shares have jumped 132 per cent so far this year, while Barrick’s stock has risen 98 per cent.
The leadership shakeups at both companies are also drawing attention. Barrick’s sudden exit of CEO Mark Bristow last month — despite previous commitments to stay — has raised questions about the miner’s long-term direction, particularly after a US$1 billion write-off linked to its Mali operations. Industry observers say Barrick’s new chief could reshape the company’s approach to major assets such as Reko Diq in Pakistan, while optimism is growing around its Fourmile project in Nevada.
In contrast, Newmont’s appointment of Natascha Viljoen as its first female CEO was widely expected and seen as a steady, strategic move. The company is set to release its quarterly results on Thursday, followed by Agnico Eagle on Oct. 29, Kinross on Nov. 4, and Barrick on Nov. 10 — all of which are anticipated to show the industry shining brighter than ever amid a global rush for gold.