Home prices in the Greater Toronto Area are expected to decline in the final months of 2025, even as parts of Canada begin to see modest price gains, according to Royal LePage’s latest House Price Survey and Market Forecast released on October 15.
Nationally, the aggregate price of a home in Canada remained virtually unchanged in the third quarter of 2025, rising just 0.1 per cent year over year to $816,500. However, prices dipped 1.2 per cent compared to the previous quarter, driven by depreciation in several major urban markets over the summer.
“Canada’s housing market is shifting toward balance, as easing prices, rising listings and renewed rate cuts improve affordability across most regions,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “For the first time in years, buyers – especially in previously supply-strapped markets – have real choice and negotiating power. With confidence returning and further rate reductions expected into early 2026, we anticipate noticeably stronger activity by the spring.”
The GTA continues to stand out for its price declines. The aggregate price of a home in the region dropped 3.5 per cent year over year to $1,114,900 in the third quarter, with the same 3.5 per cent decline recorded on a quarterly basis. Detached homes saw a modest 1.2 per cent annual decrease to a median price of $1,403,800, while condominiums experienced a steeper drop of 7.4 per cent, bringing the median price to $668,700.
“The GTA housing market remains firmly in favour of buyers,” said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Your Community Realty. “Sales activity has been gradually increasing, however, this has not translated into price appreciation due to higher-than-normal levels of available inventory. Active listings are well up, with new listings consistently outpacing sales, giving buyers significant negotiating power and choice.”
Properties are also lingering on the market longer. “The average days on market is now edging towards two months – a stark contrast to the pandemic real estate frenzy, when properties were selling in just a few days,” Zigelstein said. “Sellers who price their homes too high are finding them languishing, as buyers remain cautious, selective and still highly price-sensitive.”
Looking ahead, Royal LePage forecasts a three per cent year-over-year drop in GTA home prices in the fourth quarter of 2025, revising earlier predictions downward to reflect current market conditions.
Elsewhere in Canada, prices are expected to inch up one per cent in the same period, though this forecast has also been revised down due to price declines in Ontario and British Columbia and slower growth in other markets. Soper said the recent uptick in sales could set the stage for a brisk 2026 spring market, provided consumer confidence continues to improve.
Compared to the pandemic peak of spring 2022, national home prices have fallen by about five per cent, led by sharp corrections in Toronto and Vancouver where prices are more than 12 per cent below their highs. In contrast, markets in Quebec, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada have continued to post price gains.
“Buyer sentiment is being influenced by a complex mix of economic and psychological factors,” Soper added. “Despite materially improved affordability in major cities, many Canadians – particularly younger ones – remain cautious amid high post-pandemic living costs, perceived job uncertainty, and general unease about our economic prospects. It’s understandable that some are waiting before making such a significant purchase.”