A new survey suggests that Canadians with strong personal or family ties to immigration are more likely to support the Liberal Party over the Conservatives in the lead-up to the 2025 federal election. The Nanos Research poll, conducted for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, shows the widest margin among first-generation Canadian citizens—those with at least one parent born outside the country.
In that group, 46.1 per cent of respondents said they support the Liberals, compared to 35.8 per cent who favour the Conservatives, creating a 10.3-point advantage for the Liberals. Support for other parties in this demographic was considerably lower, with the NDP polling at 8.5 per cent and the Greens at 4.7 per cent.
Among second-generation Canadians—those with at least one grandparent born abroad—the Liberal lead persisted. Some 47 per cent of respondents from this group backed the Liberals, while 37.1 per cent supported the Conservatives. The NDP drew support from 11.1 per cent and the Greens from just 3.7 per cent.
For immigrants themselves, the gap narrowed. While 46 per cent reported supporting the Liberals, 42.7 per cent said they backed the Conservatives. Smaller numbers supported the NDP (6.2 per cent) or the Greens (3.5 per cent). Notably, zero per cent of respondents born outside Canada expressed support for the Bloc Québécois.
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, noted that the Bloc has consistently struggled to gain traction among immigrant, first-generation, and second-generation voters in Quebec.
Meanwhile, among respondents with three or more generations of family born in Canada—those with minimal or no connection to immigration—the race was effectively tied. Liberals held a narrow edge with 40.6 per cent support, while Conservatives trailed by just 0.1 points at 40.5 per cent, reflecting a statistical dead heat.
When asked who they preferred as prime minister, respondents overall gave Liberal leader Mark Carney a nine-point lead over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Carney’s support was particularly strong among Canadians with immigrant backgrounds, with the largest gap observed among second-generation Canadians—where he led Poilievre by nearly 20 percentage points.
The poll was conducted from April 21 to 23 with 1,307 randomly selected Canadian adults participating by phone and online. It carries a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.