OTTAWA — Concern appears to be growing within Conservative ranks over Pierre Poilievre’s political future, with several MPs privately questioning whether their leader can defeat Prime Minister Mark Carney and some reportedly wondering whether Poilievre will even remain at the helm when Canadians next head to the polls.
The internal unease comes as new polling suggests Carney currently enjoys a significant political advantage and that Canadians see no clear Conservative figure capable of defeating him.
CTV News interviewed 17 Conservative MPs from different regions of Canada, granting them anonymity to speak openly about the party’s challenges. Their assessments reveal a caucus wrestling with difficult questions about leadership, electoral strategy and whether the Conservatives can regain momentum before the next federal election.
The MPs were asked specifically about a recent Nanos Research poll commissioned by CTV News that found 33 per cent of respondents believed none of the Conservative figures presented to them could defeat Carney.
Former prime minister Stephen Harper received 16 per cent support as a potential challenger, while Poilievre stood at 15 per cent.
All but two of the Conservative MPs interviewed reportedly agreed with the poll’s broader conclusion that there is currently no obvious Conservative challenger to Carney.
Although Poilievre continues to enjoy considerable support in Western Canada, particularly Alberta, several MPs expressed pessimism about the party’s ability to defeat Carney nationally if an election were held under current political conditions.
Ontario appears to be causing particular anxiety.
Five MPs identified Canada’s most populous province as a major challenge for the Conservatives, saying some voters who have traditionally supported the party appear increasingly comfortable with Carney and his leadership.
“We are in real trouble in Ontario,” one Conservative MP said. Asked what might happen if Canadians went to the polls immediately, the MP responded: “I don’t even want to think about that.”
Another Conservative MP representing a rural Ontario riding reported signs of dissatisfaction with Poilievre among women and senior voters, although the MP maintained there was still enough time for the Conservatives to turn their fortunes around.
Attention is also increasingly focused on an upcoming federal byelection in Brantford following Conservative MP Larry Brock’s announcement that he will step down in September.
The riding has been held by the Conservatives since 2008, making the eventual byelection a potentially important test of the party’s strength in Ontario.
One Conservative MP suggested that losing Brantford could place Poilievre’s leadership in serious jeopardy, comparing its potential significance to the Liberals’ stunning 2024 defeat in Toronto—St. Paul’s.
That byelection loss became a major political warning for the Liberals and intensified questions surrounding then-prime minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership before his eventual departure.
Concerns extend well beyond Ontario.
One Atlantic Canadian Conservative MP described the party’s support in the region as having “cratered,” saying constituents encountered while door-knocking frequently express dislike for Poilievre.
The MP predicted the Conservatives would struggle badly in Atlantic Canada if an election were held under current conditions.
The Nanos findings appear to reinforce those concerns, with Atlantic Canadians forming the largest regional group saying there is currently no obvious Conservative challenger capable of defeating Carney.
Poilievre’s position appears considerably stronger among Conservative MPs in Western Canada, although support there is not unanimous.
One Alberta MP offered unequivocal backing for Poilievre, while another said nervous Conservative caucus members need to “chill out,” describing their leader as a powerful communicator who remains capable of defeating Carney in a future election.
But another Western Canadian MP went significantly further, suggesting it may be time for Poilievre to consider leaving the leadership.
“Pierre did an amazing job in the last election, but the game has changed. He needs to read the room,” the MP said, adding that Conservatives worried about losing their seats include representatives from Western Canada.
The MP argued that Poilievre should be given an opportunity to leave on his own terms and preserve his contribution to the Conservative movement.
Not everyone within caucus shares that pessimism.
Another rural Ontario Conservative MP expressed continued loyalty to Poilievre and cautioned colleagues against assuming today’s political environment will remain unchanged until the next election.
The MP pointed to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, recalling that many political observers once doubted Harper could defeat Liberal prime minister Paul Martin before the Conservatives ultimately formed government in 2006.
That MP believes Carney will increasingly face the challenge of delivering on promises made to Canadians and said Conservatives will focus on holding the government accountable for those commitments.
Longtime Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner, who was not among the 17 MPs interviewed by CTV News, has also publicly discussed the need for reflection within the party.
In a recent online commentary, Rempel Garner wrote that political movements should give leaders grace when those leaders respond to setbacks with “humility and discipline.”
Speaking separately to reporters, she described a period of introspection as healthy for any political party.
Asked directly whether the Conservatives could win a federal election with Poilievre as leader, her answer was clear: “Yes, I do.”
The next major test may come when Parliament returns.
The House of Commons is scheduled to resume sitting on September 21, and several Conservative MPs reportedly believe Poilievre’s relationship with his own caucus will be critical to maintaining internal unity.
About half of the MPs interviewed said Poilievre became increasingly distant from caucus colleagues during the final months of the previous parliamentary sitting. According to those MPs, morale suffered as Carney consolidated his political position and Conservatives confronted the prospect of spending years in Opposition.
One senior Conservative MP summarized the frustration bluntly: “Being in Opposition sucks.”
For Poilievre, the political challenge is now unfolding on two fronts. He must convince Canadians that Conservatives offer a stronger alternative to the Carney government while simultaneously reassuring nervous members of his own caucus that staying the course under his leadership provides their best route back to power.
There is no indication at this stage of an organized caucus revolt, and Poilievre continues to have vocal defenders who believe the political environment can change dramatically before another election.
But the private comments from MPs reveal something potentially more consequential: doubts that were once largely confined to political speculation are now being openly discussed within Conservative ranks.
With Ontario emerging as a particular concern, Atlantic support under pressure and even some Western MPs questioning the party’s direction, the coming months could prove critical for Poilievre.
When Parliament returns in September, the Conservative leader will not only be trying to put Mark Carney’s government on the defensive. He may also have to convince members of his own team that he remains the person who can lead them back to government.