Thu. Dec 5th, 2024

Is Narendra Modi Losing Ground in India’s General Election? BJP May Shrink to Under 230 Seat

Introduction

The 2024 Indian general election is poised to be one of the most significant in the country’s history, potentially even more impactful than the 1977 elections that ended Indira Gandhi’s authoritarian regime. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are facing unprecedented challenges, making this election a critical juncture for India. This article examines Modi’s past successes, current ground realities, the rise of the INDIA alliance, and the internal and external factors contributing to the BJP’s potential decline.

Modi’s Past Electoral Success

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s electoral victories in 2014 and 2019 were driven by his compelling national narrative focused on economic development, strong nationalism, and the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. These promises, combined with effective campaign strategies, secured the BJP a commanding majority, with 303 seats in 2019.

Current Ground Reality

As the 2024 elections approach, Modi and the BJP are encountering significant resistance across several key states. In South India, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, the BJP has historically struggled to gain traction. These states, characterized by higher development indices and a tradition of religious harmony, have shown limited interest in the BJP’s Hindutva agenda. In 2019, the BJP won only 30 out of 131 seats from this region, with the majority coming from Karnataka​.

In Northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Himachal Pradesh, the “Modi wave” that was influential in previous elections appears to be waning. Voters in these regions are increasingly concerned with immediate economic issues such as unemployment, inflation, and corruption, overshadowing the BJP’s religious and nationalist rhetoric​ .

The Yogi Factor and Internal Rivalries

In Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, known for his hardline Hindu stance, is both a significant ally and a potential rival within the BJP. Tensions between him and Home Minister Amit Shah have led to internal discord, which could impact the BJP’s performance in UP. Despite his influence, Yogi’s role has been somewhat diminished by the central leadership, leading to friction within the party​ .

Sidelining Key Leaders

The BJP’s strategy of sidelining key leaders has also contributed to internal strife. In Haryana, the resignation of Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar amidst a split with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) is a case in point. Khattar’s replacement by Nayab Singh Saini, a low-profile OBC leader, was seen as a strategic move to counter anti-incumbency but has exposed rifts within the party​ .

The INDIA Alliance and Emerging Leaders

The opposition, united under the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) coalition, has gained significant traction despite resource constraints and a lack of cohesive strategy. Key leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav have been at the forefront, rallying support and criticizing the BJP’s policies. Rahul Gandhi’s “Bharat Jodo Yatra” has focused on uniting various opposition factions and addressing economic disparities. Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party has strengthened the opposition’s presence in Uttar Pradesh, a crucial battleground state. In Maharashtra, Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena (UBT) has mobilized support against the BJP, emphasizing regional pride and development issues​ .

The Role of Arvind Kejriwal and AAP

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have also played a significant role in the opposition’s campaign. However, Kejriwal’s recent arrest and the subsequent crackdown on AAP leaders have raised concerns about the BJP’s use of central agencies to target political opponents, adding to the narrative of authoritarianism against the BJP​ .

Mamta Banerjee’s Influence

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has emerged as a formidable force against the BJP. Known for her grassroots connect and combative political style, Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) has been actively working to expand its influence beyond West Bengal. Her vocal criticism of Modi’s policies and her efforts to unite opposition parties have made her a key player in the INDIA alliance. Her strong performance in the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections, where the TMC secured a decisive victory against the BJP, has bolstered her position as a significant opposition leader​ .

People’s Anger Against the Ruling Party

Public dissatisfaction with the ruling party has been growing due to several factors. Economic issues such as unemployment and inflation have become major concerns for voters. Many feel that the government has failed to deliver on its promises of economic growth and job creation. Additionally, there is widespread discontent over the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly the second wave, which led to severe healthcare crises and economic disruption.

Moreover, the BJP’s perceived use of communal polarization and authoritarian tactics has further alienated voters. The targeting of minorities and political opponents has been criticized both domestically and internationally. This backlash is evident in various state elections where the BJP has suffered significant losses, such as in Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, and several by-elections​.

Demonetization (Note Bandi) and Handling of COVID-19

Modi’s bold move of demonetization, humorously dubbed “Note Bandi,” aimed to curb black money and corruption but ended up causing significant hardship for ordinary citizens. The sudden removal of 86% of cash from circulation led to long queues outside banks, cash shortages, and disrupted businesses. Critics argue that it failed to achieve its stated goals and instead hurt the economy​

The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic also sparked outrage. Modi’s initial confidence and declarations of victory over the virus were followed by a devastating second wave, which overwhelmed the healthcare system. The shortage of oxygen, hospital beds, and vaccines led to a crisis that many felt could have been better managed. Jokes about “Modi’s invisible vaccine” and “Modi Care kits” became common as people expressed their frustration through humor and satire​

The South-North Divide

The BJP’s struggles in South India are significant. Despite efforts, the party has failed to make substantial inroads in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. The party’s ideological and cultural disconnect with the South remains a major barrier. Economic disparities between northern and southern states further complicate the BJP’s position, as southern states feel they are not receiving their fair share of federal resources​

Concerns Over EVMs and Election Commission of India

Suspicions regarding the role of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) impartiality have also been prevalent. Allegations of EVM tampering have surfaced in various elections, raising concerns about the transparency and fairness of the electoral process. Critics have accused the ECI of favoring the Modi government, pointing to decisions that appear to benefit the BJP during elections. This perceived bias has fueled public anger and mistrust in the electoral system​ .

Fear of Constitutional Changes

A significant factor contributing to the common man’s fear and anxiety is the BJP’s perceived agenda to amend the constitution to align with its ideology. The BJP has often been accused of attempting to centralize power and alter the secular fabric of the constitution. The party’s repeated emphasis on a “Hindu Rashtra” has made minorities and secular-minded citizens anxious about the potential erosion of their rights. The prospect of the BJP achieving a majority sufficient to amend the constitution has alarmed many, fearing changes that could undermine democratic principles and civil liberties

Where Modi and Shah Went Wrong

Several strategic missteps have contributed to the BJP’s current predicament:

  1. Over-Reliance on the Ram Temple: The BJP’s heavy emphasis on the Ram Temple and Hindu nationalism has alienated many voters more concerned with immediate livelihood issues.
  2. Neglecting Economic Issues: The BJP’s failure to provide credible solutions to unemployment, inflation, and poverty has frustrated voters.
  3. Communal Polarization: Divisive rhetoric targeting Muslims and other minorities has backfired, increasing support for the opposition coalition.
  4. Underestimating the INDIA Alliance: The BJP underestimated the resilience and appeal of the INDIA alliance, which has presented a united front against the BJP’s vision for India​

Future Prospects and Estimates

Analysts predict the BJP is unlikely to secure a majority in the upcoming elections, with estimates suggesting the BJP may win between 200 to 230 seats, far short of their previous victories​ This potential outcome indicates a significant decline and highlights the changing political dynamics in India.

Conclusion

The 2024 elections are shaping up to be a critical juncture for Indian democracy. Modi’s future as Prime Minister and the BJP’s political dominance are under serious threat as the opposition gains momentum and voters seek solutions to pressing economic and social issues. This election will determine whether India continues on its current path or shifts towards a more inclusive and economically focused governance model. The ground reality suggests that Modi may not be sworn in as Prime Minister after the election, and NDA seats may shrink to under 230.

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