The federal election campaign is heading into its final stretch with the Liberal Party maintaining a slight lead over the Conservatives, according to the latest polling data from Nanos Research. The rolling three-day sample conducted between April 21 and 23 shows the Liberals at 43 per cent and the Conservatives at 39 per cent nationally, reflecting a narrowing gap as both parties push through the final days of the campaign.
NDP support remains modest at seven per cent, with the Bloc Quebecois at six per cent, the Green Party at three, and the People’s Party of Canada at just one per cent. Nik Nanos, pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, noted this is the tightest race observed since the election period began, largely due to the full release of the Conservative platform, which appears to be gaining traction with voters.
Regionally, the Liberals are performing strongly in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario. In the Atlantic provinces, they hold a commanding lead at 60 per cent compared to the Conservatives’ 30 per cent. In Ontario, the Liberals sit at 48 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing at 40. Quebec has the Liberals at 41 per cent, ahead of the Bloc at 27 and Conservatives at 25.
The Prairies remain solid Conservative territory, with 57 per cent support compared to the Liberals’ 30 per cent. In British Columbia, the race is tight with Conservatives at 42 per cent and Liberals just behind at 41. The NDP is struggling to gain significant ground in any region.
As for preferred prime minister, Liberal Leader Mark Carney still holds an edge with 46 per cent support compared to Pierre Poilievre’s 37 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh lags far behind at five per cent. While Carney’s lead has slipped slightly from an 11-point margin earlier in the week, Nanos notes Poilievre’s recent momentum has brought the gap to its narrowest point in the campaign.
Demographic breakdowns reveal key divides. Women are more likely to vote Liberal, with 49 per cent support compared to 33 per cent for Conservatives. Among men, 46 per cent support the Conservatives while 37 back the Liberals. Younger voters under 35 are leaning Conservative at 49 per cent, but the Liberals perform better with those aged 35 and up—especially older voters, where they lead 50 to 34 per cent over the Conservatives.
The 36-day election campaign concludes in just a few days, and with the race tightening, both parties are making their final pitches to sway undecided voters. Daily updates from Nanos Research will continue through to election day, offering a clearer picture of how Canadians are leaning as they head to the polls.