TORONTO — Canadians could enjoy an extended fall this year, as a potentially historic El Niño is expected to delay the arrival of consistent winter weather across much of the country.
According to The Weather Network’s fall outlook, September and October will still bring periods of chilly, stormy weather, but overall conditions are expected to trend milder—and in many areas drier—as the season progresses.
Senior meteorologist Doug Gillham says El Niño tends to bring more mild Pacific air into Canada while making it harder for frigid Arctic air to push south. The result could be fewer traditional fall storms and a later start to winter.
Ontario & Quebec: Winter May Have to Wait
For Ontario and Quebec, fairly typical fall conditions are expected through September and October, followed by a tendency toward drier weather later in the season and into November.
Consistently cold temperatures and an early winter are not expected in Central Canada, potentially giving communities such as Brampton, Mississauga and Toronto a longer fall season.
However, forecasters caution that a milder season does not mean storm-free weather. Ontario could still experience powerful thunderstorms and other high-impact weather events, even if storms occur less frequently.
Western Canada and the Prairies are also expected to experience generally milder conditions, while Atlantic Canada could see a quieter hurricane season. Northern Canada is forecast to be warmer than normal in many areas.
Climate change is also altering what Canadians consider “normal” fall weather. Average fall temperatures across Canada are now about 2.4°C warmer than in the mid-20th century, according to the report.
Bottom line: Winter isn’t cancelled—but across much of Canada, especially Ontario, it may be arriving fashionably late.