As Americans head to the polls, Canadian officials and immigration experts are closely monitoring potential ripple effects on Canada’s immigration system. The U.S.-Canada border, the world’s longest undefended boundary, plays a pivotal role in shaping immigration policies between the two nations.
Trump vs. Harris: Diverging Immigration Views
Political science professor Dr. Don Abelson of McMaster University stressed that Canadian policymakers are bracing for significant challenges if Donald Trump is re-elected. “Canada is certainly concerned about the thousands of asylum seekers who might enter the United States and then decide it’s probably better for them to continue moving north,” Abelson noted, referring to the possibility of mass deportations and stricter immigration measures under Trump.
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris’s approach to immigration emphasizes political and social accommodation, making her policies more aligned with Canada’s principles. Canadian officials would likely find working with a Harris administration more compatible.
Rising Interest in Canadian Residency
Election cycles in the U.S. often see a spike in interest from Americans considering a move to Canada, and this year is no exception. Toronto-based immigration lawyer Mario Bellissimo confirmed an uptick in inquiries, especially amidst talks of mass deportations. However, he pointed out that despite the surge in interest, actual immigration numbers are typically lower than anticipated.
Data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) shows that since 2015, 88,830 U.S. citizens have gained permanent residency in Canada, with the so-called “Trump bump” in 2016 proving modest. Bellissimo emphasized that while the fear of a migration “tsunami” post-election hasn’t materialized in the past, it’s still crucial to prepare for the unexpected.
Canada’s Strained Immigration System
Canada’s immigration system is already under pressure, dealing with a backlog of over 200,000 refugee cases. The Liberal government’s recent decision to cut immigration targets aims to ease stress on housing, the labor market, and public services, making it more challenging for U.S. applicants to gain entry.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller assured that contingency plans are in place should there be a significant influx from the U.S. election. Bellissimo expressed confidence in Canada’s preparedness but warned that a historic surge could still occur.
Navigating Complex U.S.-Canada Relations
Abelson emphasized the importance of strategic planning and cooperation between Canada and the U.S., noting that their relationship encompasses not only immigration but also broader issues like foreign policy and environmental collaboration. “Whether it’s immigration, foreign policy, or environmental cooperation, Canada and the U.S. will navigate both shared interests and challenges within a complex bilateral relationship,” he said, highlighting the need for careful coordination in the face of potential upheavals.