With just days to go until Christmas, many across southern Ontario are glancing at the skies, hoping for that classic postcard scene of snow-covered streets and rooftops. After a few bursts of snowfall earlier this month, the big question remains: will Christmas morning bring a blanket of white, or will it be another green holiday?
Long-range outlooks earlier in December hinted at wintry possibilities. The Farmers’ Almanac had forecast colder, drier conditions across eastern Canada, suggesting at least a chance of snow around Christmas. But history tells a more mixed story. Environment and Climate Change Canada defines a “white Christmas” as having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on Dec. 25 — and that benchmark isn’t always easy to meet in this part of the province.
Weather records from 1955 to 2023 across 45 major Canadian centres show the Greater Toronto Area has about a 49 per cent chance of waking up to snow on Christmas morning, while Toronto itself sits slightly lower at 43 per cent. When looking at more recent years, from 1997 to 2023, the odds drop even further — to 36 per cent for the GTA and 40 per cent for Toronto. In fact, the GTA has seen around 20 green Christmases since 1989, when bare ground replaced snowy scenes.
Hamilton has traditionally fared better. Long-term data suggests a 59 per cent likelihood of snow on the ground on Christmas morning, with more recent figures still holding strong at about 56 per cent. Even so, Hamilton has also logged 14 green Christmases over the past few decades, reminding residents that snow is never guaranteed.
This year’s short-term forecast is leaning toward milder conditions across much of southern Ontario. Environment Canada is calling for cloudy skies with a 40 per cent chance of showers in areas such as Mississauga, Brampton and Halton. Daytime highs are expected to hover around 4 C, with overnight lows near 1 C. Hamilton could see temperatures climb to about 6 C, while Durham may reach a high close to 3 C — all warm enough to keep snow at bay or melt what little may remain.
The Weather Network also notes that confidence is low for a snow-covered Christmas in communities south of Highway 401, including Windsor, Toronto, Hamilton and east toward Kingston. Systems moving through Lake Superior are more likely to deliver snow to northern regions, while rain farther south could wash away any lingering patches of white.
So while dreams of a white Christmas may fade for many in southern Ontario this year, winter may not be done just yet. The Farmers’ Almanac suggests that colder air and snow could return closer to New Year’s Eve and into the early days of the new year — offering at least some hope that true winter scenes are still on the way.