PQ leads 28% to 27%, but Premier Christine Fréchette gains momentum as health care, affordability and U.S. trade tensions dominate campaign
QUEBEC — August 28, 2026
Quebec’s provincial election is shaping up to be a highly competitive race, with a new poll showing the Parti Québécois and governing Coalition Avenir Québec separated by just one percentage point as the campaign gets underway.
A Synopsis Recherche poll conducted for La Presse puts Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois at 28 per cent among decided voters, while Premier Christine Fréchette’s CAQ has climbed to 27 per cent.
The one-point difference effectively leaves the two parties neck-and-neck and represents a significant improvement for the CAQ, which has gained seven percentage points since early August.
The Quebec Liberal Party, led by Charles Milliard, stands at 20 per cent, down six points. Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party of Quebec has 14 per cent support, while Ruba Ghazal’s Québec solidaire sits at 10 per cent.
Voting intentions
- PQ — 28%
- CAQ — 27%
- Quebec Liberals — 20%
- Quebec Conservatives — 14%
- Québec solidaire — 10%
The numbers suggest the campaign remains highly fluid, with enough voters potentially open to changing their minds to significantly alter the outcome.
Fréchette has an advantage on leadership
While the PQ holds a narrow lead in party support, Fréchette performs slightly better when Quebecers are asked who they would prefer as premier.
Fréchette leads with 26 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for St-Pierre Plamondon.
Significantly, another 23 per cent selected “none of the above,” highlighting the challenge all parties face in convincing undecided or dissatisfied voters.
Fréchette is also the only major leader with a positive net favourability rating, at +8.
St-Pierre Plamondon stands at -4, Milliard at -12, Ghazal at -17 and Duhaime at -32.
The CAQ government itself remains more divisive, with 43 per cent satisfied and 45 per cent dissatisfied with its performance.
Health care and affordability dominate
Despite the political attention surrounding Quebec sovereignty, bread-and-butter issues are currently dominating voters’ concerns.
Health care is the leading issue, identified by 54 per cent of respondents, followed by inflation and the cost of living at 41 per cent and housing at 34 per cent.
Another issue is rapidly gaining importance: Quebec’s economic relationship with the United States.
Concern about U.S. trade instability and the ongoing trade war jumped nine percentage points to 29 per cent.
The issue is particularly important among CAQ supporters, with 48 per cent identifying it as a concern, compared with 27 per cent of PQ supporters and 10 per cent of Québec solidaire voters.
That could provide Fréchette with an opportunity to campaign on economic stability and experience during an uncertain period for Canada-U.S. relations.
PQ targets CAQ economic record
St-Pierre Plamondon, meanwhile, has opened an economic front against the governing CAQ.
Campaigning at the former Northvolt site, the PQ leader criticized what he described as poorly designed economic projects under eight years of CAQ government.
He promised to end what he called an “open bar” of government subsidies for foreign multinational companies.
Instead, the PQ is proposing to reduce the corporate tax rate for Quebec small and medium-sized businesses from 11.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent.
The party says the reduction would save a company with $5 million in taxable income approximately $90,000 annually.
St-Pierre Plamondon also promised broader deregulation and reduced government intervention in business.
Sovereignty support remains at 31%
The election will inevitably bring renewed attention to Quebec independence because of the PQ’s strong position.
But the latest polling shows no corresponding surge in support for sovereignty.
Among respondents expressing an opinion, 31 per cent support Quebec independence while 69 per cent oppose it.
Those numbers are unchanged from earlier in August.
That creates an interesting strategic challenge for the PQ: the party is competing for first place even though support for its defining sovereignty objective remains considerably lower than opposition to independence.
A wide-open campaign
The early numbers suggest neither the PQ nor CAQ can afford to be complacent.
The PQ enters the campaign with a narrow lead, but the CAQ’s seven-point rise and Fréchette’s stronger personal numbers indicate significant momentum for the governing party.
The Liberals, meanwhile, remain within striking distance at 20 per cent and could become increasingly important if support shifts during the campaign.
With health care, affordability, housing and the U.S. trade dispute taking precedence for many voters, the election may ultimately be decided less by Quebec’s traditional constitutional debate and more by which party convinces voters it can manage their everyday economic and public-service concerns.
The Synopsis Recherche survey questioned 1,009 Quebec adults between August 24 and 26, 2026.