Latest Survey Shows PCs Holding Strong in Four of Five Regions as Toronto Battle Intensifies
A new Nanos Research survey shows that while Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives (PCs) maintain a commanding lead in four out of five Ontario regions, Toronto remains a battleground in the provincial election race.
According to the poll, conducted for CTV News, the Liberals have edged ahead in Toronto with 38.5% support, narrowly surpassing the PCs at 37.6%.
However, outside the city, the PCs have strengthened their grip on the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), rising to 47.8% support, compared to 36.6% for the Liberals.
PCs Maintain Double-Digit Lead Province-Wide
Across Ontario, 44% of decided voters support Doug Ford’s PCs, giving the party a 12-point lead over the Liberals (32.3%), followed by:
17.1% for the NDP
4.6% for the Green Party
When factoring in both decided and undecided voters, support levels stand at:
39.4% for the PCs
28.9% for the Liberals
15.3% for the NDP
4.1% for the Greens
An additional 1.8% selected “other”, while 10.4% remain undecided.
Ford Remains Ontario’s Preferred Choice for Premier
Ford continues to lead as the top choice for premier, with 40.4% of respondents backing him. His closest challenger, Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie, trails at 25.1%, followed by:
Marit Stiles (NDP) – 13.7%
Mike Schreiner (Greens) – 5%
According to Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, Ford’s initial 16-point lead in the CTV News/Nanos poll has narrowed to 12 points, but his party remains dominant in most regions.
“The PCs currently lead in four out of five regions across the province,” Nanos noted. “Support for both the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals tends to increase with age, while backing for the New Democrats declines among older demographics.”
The Nanos Research nightly tracking survey, commissioned by CTV News, includes responses from 920 Ontario voters interviewed between February 8 and February 10. The margin of error is 3.2%, 19 times out of 20.
As election day nears, Toronto remains the most unpredictable battleground, while Ford’s PCs aim to solidify their provincial lead.