OTTAWA — Referendums on separation in Alberta or Quebec would likely fail under current conditions, as many Canadians continue to feel anxious and insecure about the future, according to a leading pollster.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said persistent economic and social uncertainty makes voters less willing to take the risks associated with leaving Canada. His firm has been tracking what it describes as a national “precarity mindset” over the past year.
In an interview Wednesday, Coletto said conditions would need to become significantly more stable for a “yes” vote to succeed in either Alberta or Quebec.
Alberta’s election agency recently approved a proposed referendum question on separation, clearing the way for a vote if organizers gather enough signatures. Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly said she does not support separation but must respect the will of Albertans.
In Quebec, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold a referendum on sovereignty during his first term if his party wins the provincial election scheduled for Oct. 5, 2026.
Coletto said the broader environment today is far less conducive to a successful sovereignty campaign than it was in 1995, when Quebecers narrowly voted to remain in Canada.
“The mid-1990s were marked by relative global stability and optimism about globalization,” he wrote in a recent online essay. “The future felt expansive and the public was in a greater mood for risk-taking. Today, it feels brittle and deeply uncertain.”
Abacus’s “precarity index” shows that the share of respondents reporting high or extreme levels of insecurity declined slightly, from 47 per cent in July to 43 per cent in December. However, the firm found that “feelings of instability, uncertainty, and vulnerability remain deeply embedded in the Canadian mindset.”
The polling was conducted online. The Canadian Research Insights Council notes that online surveys do not have a margin of error because they do not rely on random sampling.
Coletto said recent geopolitical developments have reinforced Canadians’ sense of vulnerability, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about annexing Canada and the economic uncertainty stemming from his tariff policies.
“Unless this mindset changes, I can’t see most people in those provinces feeling that leaving Canada would make them better off than staying,” Coletto said. “People would need to feel more confident about their economic future — or overwhelmingly believe that remaining in Canada is making them worse off.”
He added that while the motivations behind separatist movements differ between the two provinces, the outcome is likely the same. Quebec’s movement has traditionally been driven by nationalism and a desire to protect language and culture, while Alberta’s is rooted more in grievances over federal policies and perceptions of economic unfairness.
“The motivations may differ, but the end result is similar because most Albertans and Quebecers still feel a strong sense of global precarity,” Coletto said.
Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, agreed that economic and trade uncertainty poses a major obstacle to independence movements in both provinces.
However, Béland cautioned against complacency, noting that even unsuccessful sovereignty efforts can create economic disruption and political risk.
“Any threat to national unity should be taken seriously,” he said, warning that such tensions could send a negative signal internationally — particularly to the Trump administration — and carry geopolitical consequences.
“It’s not just about whether the ‘no’ side would win,” Béland added. “It’s also about what holding a referendum in the current Canada–U.S. context could mean for the country as a whole.”