Tourism leaders push for stability as U.S. trade tensions and provincial election loom
Ontario’s tourism sector is bracing for economic turbulence, facing two major threats: the potential imposition of U.S. tariffs and an impending provincial election.
This week, the Tourism Industry Association of Ontario (TIAO) released its Provincial Pre-Budget Submission, outlining strategies to strengthen the province’s tourism economy. Key proposals include high-speed rail expansion, mass employment incentives, and increased marketing investment from the provincial government.
However, as speculation of a snap election collides with trade uncertainty, TIAO CEO Andrew Siegwart warns that political and economic instability could severely impact Ontario’s tourism industry.
“These issues aren’t a surprise—we’ve been preparing for the challenges with the U.S. for some time,” Siegwart told INsauga.com. “We’ve been thinking about solutions to buffer these disruptions along the way.”
With Ontario’s election now overlapping with trade disputes, TIAO faces the challenge of adapting its proposal to any party that takes power. Siegwart remains optimistic, emphasizing that the budget proposal was designed to align with all major political platforms.
Still, he notes that any election, whether scheduled or snap, slows down political processes.
“The industry is concerned that our government isn’t in the strongest position it could be. We’d like to see decisions happen quickly, but there’s a lot of uncertainty. We have 30 days to plan and regain some stability,” Siegwart said.
On February 3, 2025, the U.S. paused its proposed 25% tariffs on select Canadian goods for 30 days, following major security adjustments at the Canada-U.S. border. However, if negotiations stall, Siegwart fears that Ontario’s tourism sector will feel the fallout.
To mitigate economic instability, Siegwart believes Ontario should capitalize on the lower Canadian dollar as an incentive to attract more U.S. tourists.
“We recognize that there’s a spending advantage for U.S. visitors because their dollar goes further. But Ontario destinations haven’t been putting that message out,” Siegwart said.
Despite this approach, he warns that not all regions will be affected equally.
“The American market accounts for about 20% of all tourism spending in Ontario. But in Northwestern Ontario, where U.S. visitors make up 80% of the market, the rebound hasn’t been the same.”
While Ontario Premier Doug Ford and the federal government have vowed to fight back with retaliatory tariffs if U.S. duties take effect, Siegwart warns that counter-tariffs could further damage tourism by influencing perceptions of Canada as a travel destination.
“Our members are deeply concerned about tariffs and counter-tariffs. They fear it will create an environment that negatively impacts tourism,” he said.
Another major concern is border security, which remains a key bargaining chip in Canada’s trade negotiations with the U.S. Siegwart is watching closely, as changes to border policies could significantly affect tourism.
“COVID-19 taught us that border restrictions hurt tourism. We need to stay informed about any new border measures and ensure there aren’t unexpected barriers that limit travel.”
For now, TIAO is focused on pushing its budget strategy forward, navigating the provincial election, and preparing for a potential trade war. Siegwart remains committed to long-term planning, urging industry leaders to remain adaptable in the face of uncertainty.
“We have to react to provincial and federal decisions as they come, but we also have to play the long game,” he said.
With 30 days before the tariff deadline and an election cycle in full swing, Ontario’s tourism industry faces an uncertain road ahead.