A prolonged slowdown in Ontario’s real estate market could threaten as many as 100,000 jobs, as new home sales plunged to record lows last year, an industry group warned Thursday.
The Building Industry and Land Development Association said 2025 marked the weakest year on record for new home sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, citing data from Altus Group. Only 5,321 new homes were sold across the region last year, a figure industry analysts say is unprecedented in the 45 years sales data have been tracked.
December was particularly bleak, with just 240 new homes sold — 24 per cent fewer than a year earlier and more than 80 per cent below the 10-year average. Single-family home sales were down 63 per cent from typical levels, while condominium sales fell 89 per cent.
BILD chief operating officer Justin Sherwood warned the collapse in demand could ripple through the broader economy. He said new home sales are down sharply across the province, placing tens of thousands of construction and related jobs at risk. Calling the slowdown historic, Sherwood urged governments to eliminate HST on new homes to stimulate demand and restart stalled construction activity.
The warning comes amid broader weakness in the resale market. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported home resales fell nearly nine per cent year over year in December, reinforcing concerns that the housing downturn will deepen in 2026.
Some analysts are blunt about the outlook. Ontario mortgage broker Ron Butler said conditions are likely to worsen, dismissing hopes of a near-term rebound as unrealistic. Meanwhile, economists say price declines are likely to continue, particularly in Toronto, where Royal LePage forecasts prices will fall again this year.
University of Toronto economist Victor Couture said the province is not in a housing crash but lacks the ingredients — rapid population growth, ultra-low interest rates or strong economic expansion — needed to drive prices higher. Still, he noted the slowdown may offer an opportunity for long-term buyers, even as industry leaders warn the cost to jobs and investment could be severe if the slump persists.