Ontario will unveil its 2025-26 provincial budget on May 15, and Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy says the focus will be on economic resilience, fast-tracked growth, and protecting workers — all under the growing shadow of new American tariffs.
Speaking Thursday at Queen’s Park, Bethlenfalvy said the upcoming budget will offer a comprehensive plan to “build more, build faster,” and promote internal free trade across provinces. But he acknowledged that Ontario’s economy is now navigating uncharted waters following the reintroduction of sweeping tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump.
“We’ve been clear: this budget will help shore up the economy,” Bethlenfalvy said. “It’s about supporting workers through retraining, re-skilling, and doing what it takes to maintain a strong Ontario.”
The budget is expected to respond to the immediate pressure felt across industries hit by U.S. tariffs, particularly in steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors. Last month, the province offered a six-month deferral on select provincial taxes, providing $9 billion in relief to businesses. Additionally, a $2-billion rebate was announced by the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board for employers with strong safety records.
While Bethlenfalvy did not confirm whether additional stimulus measures will be introduced, he referenced the already-announced $11-billion economic package and hinted at further action. “The status quo is no longer acceptable,” he said. “We have a new relationship with the U.S., and we must respond with purpose.”
Ontario’s budget comes amid troubling projections. A recent report from the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) warns that American tariffs could reduce Ontario’s real GDP growth from 1.7 per cent to just 0.6 per cent, potentially triggering a modest recession in 2025. The FAO also estimated that up to 68,100 jobs could be lost across the province as export demand contracts.
The full scope of damage will depend on whether more tariffs are introduced — particularly in critical sectors like copper and pharmaceuticals — and how Canada responds with its own retaliatory measures.
This year’s budget is arriving later than usual due to the winter provincial election in February, which secured Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives a third consecutive majority. The government’s most recent fiscal update, released last fall, had projected a $1.5-billion deficit for 2025-26 and a balanced budget by 2026-27 — before Trump’s return to power and the resurgence of trade tensions.
Opposition leaders are now calling on the government to deliver a budget that protects workers, industries, and services rather than just mitigating damage after the fact.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles urged the Ford government to focus on job protection rather than relying solely on retraining programs. “We want to see a budget that strengthens our economy and safeguards jobs, not one that’s playing catch-up after the damage is done,” she said.
Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie echoed similar concerns, calling for immediate support for industries hurt by tariffs, as well as investments in health care, housing, and targeted tax relief. “It’s important to get the basics right,” Crombie said. “But we also need to protect Ontarians from job loss and economic uncertainty.”
As Ontario’s economy braces for external shocks, the May 15 budget will be closely watched for its balance between fiscal discipline and bold, proactive measures to counteract mounting trade and labour challenges.