A recent poll conducted by Leger reveals that if Canadians had a say in the U.S. presidential election, a significant majority would cast their vote for Kamala Harris. The survey found that 64% of Canadian respondents support the current U.S. Vice President, while only 21% would back former President Donald Trump. The remaining 15% were undecided.
The poll, which surveyed 1,562 Canadian adults, also highlighted a division among Canadians intending to vote Conservative in the next Canadian federal election. Within this group, 45% would hypothetically support Trump, while 42% would choose Harris. Support for Harris was higher among Canadians aged 55 and older, Quebecers, and women.
Interest in the U.S. election is widespread, with 70% of respondents expressing their engagement, particularly among Liberal voters and older Canadians. The close proximity and deep economic ties between Canada and the U.S. have Canadians closely following the race. The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner, accounting for 77% of Canadian exports and 60% of the country’s GDP.
The ongoing U.S. election has been marked by dramatic developments, including President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside, increased support for Harris, and two assassination attempts on Trump. As the race tightens with less than two weeks remaining, Canadians are weighing the impact on their nation.
Respondents overwhelmingly believe Harris would outperform Trump on key issues such as climate change, trade relations with Canada, immigration, and the economy. Harris has promised continuity with President Biden’s policies, which included maintaining some of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration despite initial promises to reverse them. She has also been critical of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), arguing it fell short in protecting American workers and the environment.
Both Democrats and Republicans have indicated plans to review the trilateral trade pact in 2026. Trump’s proposed economic agenda, centered around a 10% tariff across the board, has raised concerns. A report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce warned that such duties could shrink Canada’s economy by up to 1%, costing the country approximately $30 billion annually.
In contrast, 62% of Canadians polled believe a Harris victory would be the more favorable outcome for Canada. They also see her as more capable than Trump in managing national security, the economy, and ongoing global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Despite the interest in the election, not all Canadians plan to watch the results live. While 42% of respondents intend to follow the results after election night, 15% have no interest at all. Most notably, 65% of Canadians expressed concern about the potential for post-election violence and uncertainty, fueled by Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the election results and his controversial comments labeling the January 6 Capitol riot as “a day of love.”
With Canadians closely watching the developments across the border, the outcome of the U.S. election holds considerable implications for their nation’s political and economic landscape.