With a federal election on the horizon, potentially just days away, the Liberal Party of Canada finds itself trailing far behind its rivals in nominating candidates for the 343 ridings up for grabs. Despite a recent surge in polling numbers following a dramatic leadership transition, the Liberals have only secured 184 candidates as of Tuesday afternoon, a number that starkly contrasts with the more prepared slates of other major parties.
The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, are out in front with 275 candidates nominated, while the NDP has 217 and the Green Party has 208. The Bloc Québécois, focusing solely on Quebec’s 78 ridings, has 42 announced candidates, with 11 confirmed by nomination, and plans to field a full slate when the election is called. The Liberals’ slow pace—having nominated just over half the candidates needed—raises questions about their readiness as Prime Minister Mark Carney, who assumed leadership on March 9 and was sworn in on March 14, prepares to potentially call a snap election in the coming weeks.
Carney’s rise to leadership has reinvigorated the party, which had been on the brink of electoral defeat under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau’s resignation in January, coupled with U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade threats and “51st state” rhetoric, has shifted the political landscape, boosting Liberal support to 30.8% in recent polls, up from a low of 21.9% in January, while the Conservatives hold steady at 40.4%. This resurgence has sparked renewed interest among potential candidates, with over 100 individuals expressing interest since Carney’s election, according to Liberal spokesperson Guillaume Bertrand. “New candidates are being nominated daily across the country, and we expect more in the coming days,” Bertrand stated in an email, highlighting an “unprecedented volume” of eager contenders.
Of the Liberals’ 184 nominated candidates, about 110 are incumbents, though more than two dozen MPs opted not to run again amid the party’s earlier struggles. However, the shifting tides have prompted at least four candidates who had planned to exit politics to rejoin the race in recent weeks. Notably, Nate Erskine-Smith, the only cabinet member yet to be nominated, reversed his initial decision to step away after Trudeau offered him a cabinet post in December. Erskine-Smith told The Canadian Press his nomination is complete, pending final notarization.
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara and a former pollster for Trudeau’s Liberals, attributed the nomination delays to the recent leadership change. “A lot of Liberal nominations were likely held up until the leadership transition was finalized,” Arnold explained. He suggested several factors at play: some younger candidates may have been waiting to see if Carney would win, the party might have deemed it inappropriate to nominate candidates before the new leader was sworn in, and ongoing background checks could be slowing the process. Additionally, Arnold noted that Carney might want a say in selections for competitive ridings, and the party could be strategically saving some announcements for the campaign to maximize impact.
The Liberals’ improved polling, particularly in regions like Alberta where support has climbed to 30%, may also be driving a last-minute push for high-profile candidates. “When the polling suddenly has the Liberals at 30 percent in Alberta, maybe there’s more interest in some of those Calgary, Edmonton seats than there was before,” Arnold said. “I think there’s a lot of scrambling going on, I’d imagine.” He remains confident that the Liberals have a plan to field candidates in every riding, stating, “They wouldn’t be planning to go into an election within a week if they didn’t have a strategy to get candidates everywhere.”
Meanwhile, the NDP is gearing up for the race, with Anne McGrath, principal secretary to Leader Jagmeet Singh, asserting the party’s readiness to present a full slate of candidates “from coast to coast to coast.” The NDP had 201 candidates at the start of the 2021 campaign, a number they’ve already surpassed with 217 as of Tuesday.
As the election looms—potentially as early as late April or early May—the Liberals’ lag in nominations could signal deeper organizational challenges, despite their polling rebound. With Carney yet to announce his own riding, the party’s ability to mobilize quickly will be crucial in a contest increasingly shaped by external pressures like U.S.-Canada relations and internal party dynamics.