As the Liberal Party gears up to crown its new leader—and Canada’s next prime minister—on Sunday, CTV Morning Live tapped political analyst Scott Reid for a deep dive into what’s at stake. The vote, set to unfold at Ottawa’s Rogers Centre, promises a pivotal moment with results expected around dinnertime, followed by a swearing-in at Rideau Hall by Governor General Mary Simon.
Reid, a CTV News veteran, doesn’t mince words: Mark Carney’s got this in the bag. “Spoiler alert—he’s almost certainly taking it on the first ballot,” Reid said. “Even if it drags to a count of recorded votes, it’s his to lose.” The former Bank of Canada governor’s frontrunner status isn’t the only thing analysts are tracking. Reid expects a strong showing from ex-finance minister Chrystia Freeland and a buzzworthy performance from Government House Leader Karina Gould, who’s sparked “real energy” among the party faithful.
The victory speech will be a telltale moment, Reid says, with all eyes on how the winner tackles the escalating trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump. “That first address could set the tone for everything ahead,” he noted.
Reid predicts a whirlwind transition. Parliament, prorogued by Justin Trudeau until March 24 after his January resignation bombshell, could snap back sooner. “We’re talking a Sunday-to-Sunday handover—Carney sworn in as PM in record time,” he said. “Then it’s cabinet time.” Who gets the finance gig? Will Freeland stay in the fold, and if so, where? “Will it be a legacy crew or a fresh shuffle? That’s the insider game to watch,” Reid added.
He’s betting on a snap election if Carney wins, driven by three big factors: legitimacy, leverage, and momentum. “Carney’s never faced voters—he’d want a mandate fast,” Reid explained. “Plus, with Trump’s tariffs looming, he’d need muscle to lead. And politically, he’s surging—polls show him neck-and-neck with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Why wait?”
Carney’s financial chops—he steered Canada through the 2008 crisis—give him an edge, Reid argues. “He’ll want to cash in that momentum, hit the campaign trail, and take his shot at locking in power.”
Sunday marks the end of Trudeau’s decade-long run, with his official exit days away. The new leader steps into a shaky minority government—no supply-and-confidence lifeline, just a restless opposition itching to topple the Liberals. The Conservatives, led by Poilievre, are clamoring to recall Parliament and spar over Trump’s trade threats. Whatever happens, Reid says, the clock’s ticking—and Canada’s political landscape is about to shift hard and fast.
Courtesy CTV News