A new national survey by the Angus Reid Institute reveals a striking shift in Canada’s federal election landscape, with the Liberal Party now holding an eight-point lead (46%) over the Conservatives (38%)—a dramatic turnaround driven by a surge of support in urban centres and Quebec, and the growing popularity of new Liberal leader Mark Carney.
The Liberals’ resurgence is largely attributed to the collapse of NDP support, which now sits at a mere 7%. Half of the voters who backed the NDP in 2021 say they would vote Liberal if the election were held today. Bloc Québécois support has also dwindled sharply in Quebec, from 11% in December to just 6% now, with nearly a quarter of its 2021 supporters shifting allegiance to the Liberals.
Support for the Liberal Party has doubled or nearly doubled in major urban centres since December. In Metro Vancouver, Liberal support rose from 27% to 50%. In Toronto, support has surged from 27% to 56% in the downtown core, and from 25% to 52% in the outer suburbs. Montreal has seen Liberal support grow from 34% to a commanding 64%.
Much of this momentum is credited to the leadership of Mark Carney. Nearly half (46%) of Canadians say their opinion of Carney has improved recently, while 54% view him favourably—making him the only national party leader with a net positive image.
Despite the Liberals’ promising rise, the Conservatives remain strong in voter commitment. While only 51% of Liberal supporters say they are firmly committed to their choice, 72% of Conservative voters express unwavering loyalty to Pierre Poilievre’s party. This suggests that while Liberal momentum is high, it may not yet be fully solidified.
The poll also highlights how critical this election feels to Canadians: 72% describe the 2025 race as “way more important” than the 2021 election—a level of urgency not seen in previous campaigns.