NEW DELHI/ISLAMABAD — After a week of the most serious clashes between India and Pakistan in decades, both nations are claiming victory, even as the region teeters on the edge of a broader conflict. Tensions remain high, with fresh confrontations reported daily and civilians in both countries bracing for what may come next.
On Wednesday, India launched missile strikes deep into Pakistani territory, calling them targeted operations against terrorist groups it blames for the April 22 massacre of 26 tourists in Kashmir. Hours later, Pakistan said it had shot down multiple Indian aircraft in retaliation, claiming a decisive military win. CNN has not independently verified these claims, and India has yet to acknowledge any aircraft losses.
Pakistan also reported shooting down 25 Indian drones overnight Thursday in what it labeled a “serious provocation,” claiming the strikes injured soldiers and killed a civilian.
On both sides of the border, nationalistic rhetoric has surged. Indian newspapers hailed the strikes as “justice served,” while Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared, “It only took a few hours for the enemy to fall on its knees.” His government, however, has yet to respond with a direct counterstrike, prompting speculation that Islamabad may be seeking an off-ramp.
Analysts say that despite tough public statements, there may still be space for de-escalation—particularly if Pakistan holds back from launching its own strikes and contents itself with its claimed air defense wins. “If Pakistan decides to save face and call it a day, an off-ramp could be in sight,” said Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia analyst. “But if it retaliates further, all bets are off.”
India has insisted its strikes were precise and non-escalatory, specifically avoiding civilian and military infrastructure. One of its targets was located deep inside Pakistan’s Punjab province—the deepest strike since the 1971 India-Pakistan war—raising the stakes both militarily and politically. According to Pakistani officials, a mosque was among the buildings hit, further inflaming public sentiment in the Muslim-majority nation.
The potential for escalation is especially concerning given that both countries are nuclear-armed and have fought three wars over Kashmir. Analysts agree neither nation can afford a full-scale conflict, but caution that missteps or political pressure could derail cooler judgment.
India, with a stronger economy and larger military, would likely hold the upper hand in a conventional war. But as Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution notes, it too has much to lose. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has worked to elevate India’s global standing, and escalation could jeopardize its diplomatic and economic ambitions—including its aspirations to host the Olympics and rival China in manufacturing.
Pakistan, already grappling with economic instability, an insurgency, and political volatility, faces even greater risks from a prolonged conflict. While its leaders project strength, they must weigh the cost of escalation against the mounting domestic challenges.
Behind the scenes, diplomatic efforts are quietly underway. India has reportedly reached out to key allies—including the U.S., Russia, and Gulf nations—to push for international pressure on Islamabad. The United States has historically played a role in defusing South Asian crises, but it’s unclear how much attention the Trump administration is prepared to give this time.
Gulf states like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—who maintain good ties with both New Delhi and Islamabad—are seen as potential mediators. Qatar was among the first to call for restraint after Wednesday’s strikes.
While Pakistan’s military has projected strength—claiming to shoot down five Indian jets during a battle involving over 100 aircraft—India has remained largely silent on the matter. Independent confirmation remains elusive, but a French defense source did confirm the loss of one Rafale jet.
Whether or not those losses occurred, the perception of success may be enough for Pakistan to declare victory and step back. “This would allow Pakistan to claim it has imposed costs on Indian military targets,” said Carnegie Endowment fellow Milan Vaishnav.
Still, danger looms. Pakistan’s military chief General Asim Munir, known for his hawkish stance, has pledged to respond forcefully to any Indian aggression. And within Modi’s Hindu nationalist government, calls for a harder line on Pakistan remain strong.
“Despite the existence of an off-ramp, this crisis is as unpredictable as it is dangerous—an unsettling combination,” Kugelman warned.
As both sides weigh their next moves, the hope is that behind-the-scenes diplomacy, and not battlefield bravado, will determine what happens next.