If Liberal leader Mark Carney is to secure a fourth consecutive term for his party, the road to victory runs straight through Toronto and the surrounding Greater Toronto Area. With 55 ridings and approximately 4.5 million eligible voters in the 416 and 905, this region has been a crucial source of Liberal dominance in every federal election since 2015.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is making a concerted push to erode that dominance, while the NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, is aiming to break a long dry spell in the region—they haven’t won a seat in Toronto since 2011 or in the GTA suburbs since 1990. As Canadians prepare to vote, several ridings across the city and suburbs stand out as bellwethers, battlegrounds, and potential shockers.
In Toronto—St. Paul’s, the Liberals face a high-profile rematch after losing the seat to the Conservatives in a byelection last year. Leslie Church, a former senior adviser to Chrystia Freeland, is aiming to reclaim it from Conservative Don Stewart. The ballot also features candidates from the NDP, Green, PPC, Canadian Future, and Marxist-Leninist parties.
In Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, the Liberals’ narrowest win in the last election makes this a must-win for the Conservatives if they hope to make inroads in the 905. Incumbent Leah Taylor Roy is being challenged by former Conservative MP Costas Menegakis, with additional contenders from the NDP, Green, and PPC.
Milton East—Halton Hills South is a newly drawn riding with razor-thin historical margins. Both Carney and Poilievre have visited the area, underscoring its importance. Conservative Parm Gill, a former MPP and cabinet minister in Doug Ford’s government, is up against Liberal Kristina Tesser Derksen, a lawyer and municipal councillor. Other candidates include representatives from the NDP, PPC, Green, and independents.
In King—Vaughan, the Liberals hope to retake a seat lost in 2021. Conservative Anna Roberts is defending the riding against Liberal Mubarak Ahmed, joined by NDP, Green, and PPC contenders.
Eglinton—Lawrence features a contest between Liberal Vince Gasparro, a former senior adviser to Toronto Mayor John Tory, and Conservative Karen Stintz, well known as a former TTC chair and city councillor. The riding has swung Conservative before, most notably in 2011. NDP, PPC, and Green candidates also appear on the ballot.
In Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park, the NDP has its best chance of returning to the Toronto map. Former MPP Bhutila Karpoche is vying for the seat vacated by Liberal Arif Virani. The Liberals are running Karim Bardeesy, a former senior Ontario government adviser. With several fringe party candidates in the mix, this riding could mark a breakthrough for Singh’s party.
Markham—Unionville drew early national attention this campaign after Liberal incumbent Paul Chiang withdrew from the race over controversial remarks. His replacement, Peter Yuen, a former deputy police chief, now faces off against Conservative Michael Ma, who has a compelling personal backstory. The riding has a large Chinese-speaking population and remains one to watch.
Mississauga—Lakeshore stands out as a prime Conservative target in Peel Region, where they haven’t won a seat since 2011. Liberal Charles Sousa, a former Ontario finance minister, is seeking re-election against Tom Ellard, a military veteran and project manager. Additional candidates include those from the NDP, Green, PPC, and independents.
Bowmanville—Oshawa North, formerly Durham, was won handily in a 2024 byelection by Conservative Jamil Jivani, a rising star with close ties to prominent U.S. conservatives. He faces Liberal Bridget Girard, a school principal, and a broad field of candidates from minor and independent parties.
Finally, Burlington retains its reputation as the GTA’s bellwether riding, having voted for the winning party in every general election since 1984. Liberal incumbent Karina Gould, once a contender for the party leadership, faces Conservative challenger Emily Brown, a scientific researcher and professor. The race is also being contested by candidates from the NDP, Green, PPC, Libertarian, and Rhinoceros parties.
From downtown Toronto to the outer reaches of the 905, these 10 ridings will offer a snapshot of where the election is heading—and possibly determine which leader walks away with the keys to 24 Sussex.