Gold prices surged past US$5,000 an ounce for the first time on Sunday, marking a historic milestone as investors piled into the precious metal amid rising geopolitical tensions, market volatility, and concerns over U.S. political and economic stability.
Gold rose 1.4 per cent to US$5,058 per troy ounce by Sunday evening, extending a powerful rally that has defined the start of 2026. In just the first 26 days of the year, gold has climbed 15 per cent, building on an extraordinary 65 per cent gain in 2025 — its strongest annual performance since 1979.
Traditionally viewed as a hedge against uncertainty, gold’s latest surge reflects growing investor anxiety as global markets react to a series of destabilizing developments tied to the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Geopolitical shocks drive demand
Market analysts point to mounting geopolitical uncertainty as a central driver of the rally. Investor confidence has been rattled by Trump’s abrupt shifts in foreign policy, including threats of tariffs against key allies, renewed trade tensions, and U.S. military action in Venezuela.
Gold prices spiked following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, along with Trump’s warnings directed at Iran amid violent crackdowns on protesters. Markets were also unsettled by Trump’s revived rhetoric around Greenland and the possibility of a renewed global trade war.
Over the weekend, Trump further inflamed tensions by threatening 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports should Ottawa pursue deeper trade ties with China — a move Canadian officials have said they do not intend to make.
Domestic pressures add to volatility
Uncertainty has also intensified on the home front. Trump’s renewed attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, combined with a newly launched criminal investigation into Powell, have raised fresh concerns about the political independence of the U.S. central bank.
At the same time, a weaker U.S. dollar, higher-than-expected inflation, and expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further this year have added to gold’s appeal.
Central banks around the world have also continued to increase gold reserves, providing another source of sustained demand.
Silver and precious metals rally
Silver, another traditional safe-haven asset, also posted sharp gains, rising 4.5 per cent on Sunday to US$107.80 an ounce. Like gold, silver delivered its strongest annual performance in decades last year, surging 141 per cent in 2025.
Analysts see room for further gains
Despite gold’s record-breaking run, many analysts remain bullish, arguing that prices could climb even higher if uncertainty persists.
Before the latest surge, analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their gold price forecast to US$5,400 per ounce, citing “lingering global policy uncertainty” and growing private-sector demand.
Others are even more optimistic. Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said in a recent research note that gold prices could ultimately exceed US$6,000 if geopolitical and economic pressures continue to intensify.
A barometer of anxiety
Gold is widely seen as both a refuge in turbulent times and a signal of broader market stress. With global politics in flux, trade relationships under strain, and confidence in institutions being tested, investors appear increasingly willing to pay a premium for safety.
As 2026 unfolds, analysts say gold’s trajectory will depend largely on whether uncertainty eases — or continues to deepen.