Canadians are casting their votes today in an election dominated by concerns over affordability, tariffs, and threats to sovereignty from U.S. President Donald Trump. As voters head to the polls, the outcome will determine whether Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives end nearly a decade of Liberal rule, or whether Mark Carney’s Liberals are handed a mandate to guide Canada through a period of deep uncertainty.
Whoever wins will soon face the challenge of navigating an unpredictable White House while addressing mounting domestic pressures, including the soaring cost of living. With the stakes high, smaller parties like Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, the Bloc Québécois, and the Greens are also fighting for political survival as they risk losing ground in a race increasingly focused on the two main parties.
Polling stations first opened in Newfoundland at 8:30 a.m. local time and will close across British Columbia by 7 p.m. Pacific Time. The election’s significance is underscored by a record-setting 7.3 million Canadians voting in advance polls, a sharp increase from the 5.8 million who voted early in 2021.
The 2025 election was initially expected to favour the Conservatives until former prime minister Justin Trudeau, facing mounting pressure, announced his resignation. Mark Carney’s arrival as Liberal leader quickly shifted the race. An experienced economist and former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, Carney boosted Liberal fortunes, although final polls showed only slim margins separating the two major parties.
Pollster Nik Nanos described the election as one of the closest two-way races in a generation, noting that while polls offer a snapshot of voter intent, the number of seats won in the House of Commons ultimately determines who governs. In previous elections, the Conservatives won the popular vote but lost the seat count, a scenario that remains possible this year.
Regardless of today’s result, the next prime minister will inherit a divided nation, with support split starkly between eastern and western Canada. The NDP, Bloc, and Greens are polling below five per cent nationally and could face significant losses.
The main contenders, Carney and Poilievre, share roots in Alberta and both once worked under former prime minister Stephen Harper, although they have carved out very different political identities. Carney was Harper’s appointee as Bank of Canada governor during the 2008 financial crisis and later led the Bank of England through Brexit turbulence. He later served as an economic adviser to the Trudeau government.
Poilievre, meanwhile, rose through Conservative ranks after being elected to Parliament in 2004 at the age of 25. A cabinet minister under Harper, he gained national prominence supporting the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests and has since capitalized on growing frustration with the Liberals.
The Conservatives have sought to brand Carney as a Liberal insider tied to Trudeau’s legacy, while the Liberals portrayed Poilievre as a populist lacking the experience needed to manage a turbulent economy and defend Canada against Trump’s aggressive policies.
Poilievre repeatedly challenged voters during debates, asking, “What is your cost of living like compared to a decade ago?” and warning against re-electing “the same Liberal MPs, the same Liberal ministers, the same Liberal staffers” for a fourth term.
Carney countered by emphasizing his leadership credentials, saying, “Unlike Pierre Poilievre, I’ve managed budgets before. I’ve managed economies before. I’ve managed crises before. This is a time for experience, not experiments.”
Both leaders are contesting neighbouring ridings near Ottawa — Carney in Nepean and Poilievre in Carleton — adding an even sharper edge to a race that remains too close to call as Canadians decide their future at the ballot box today.