Early Poll Gives Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow Lead as 2026 Election Race Begins to Take Shape

Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow holds an early lead over city councillor Brad Bradford in the first major public opinion survey conducted since former mayor John Tory confirmed he will not return to the mayoral race in 2026. A new poll released by Pallas Data shows Chow with 35 per cent support among eligible Toronto voters, compared to 29 per cent for Bradford. Despite Chow’s advantage, about one quarter of respondents remain undecided with roughly 230 days remaining before the municipal election. The survey, conducted March 7 and 8 with 735 voters through automated telephone interviews, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Analysts say Chow’s numbers suggest a stable base of support, roughly matching the share of residents who believe the city is moving in the right direction. When undecided voters are removed from the calculation, the race becomes more defined, with Chow attracting 47 per cent of decided voters while Bradford captures 38 per cent and another 14 per cent say they would support a different candidate. The contest could become more complicated if additional challengers enter the race. In a hypothetical three-candidate scenario that includes former Ontario cabinet minister and city councillor Michael Ford, Chow maintains about 36 per cent support while Ford secures 17 per cent and Bradford drops to 22 per cent. Among voters who have already chosen a candidate in that scenario, Chow leads with 44 per cent, while Bradford and Ford split much of the centre-right vote. Ford has indicated he is seriously considering a mayoral bid following Tory’s decision to step aside. Polling analysis suggests that for any challenger to defeat the incumbent, opposition voters would need to rally around a single alternative candidate. At the same time, the survey highlights dissatisfaction among many residents with the direction of the city. Nearly half of respondents say Toronto is heading in the wrong direction, compared with about one-third who feel it is on the right track. The mayor’s approval ratings also show mixed sentiment, with half of those surveyed saying they are dissatisfied with Chow’s performance, including a sizable group who describe themselves as very dissatisfied. City council as a whole faces even tougher public opinion, with nearly 60 per cent of respondents expressing disapproval. Analysts note that while dissatisfaction with city leadership exists, it has not yet translated into strong support for a single challenger, leaving the upcoming mayoral race open to further shifts as the campaign season approaches.