More than 35,000 households left the Greater Toronto Area for other parts of Canada last year, with Simcoe County, Hamilton and Calgary emerging as the most popular destinations, according to new data obtained by CTV News Toronto.
The figures, compiled by Environics Analytics, show that nearly 250,000 GTA households moved between the first quarters of 2024 and 2025. Most of those moves happened within the same census area — for example, a Toronto resident relocating to another neighbourhood in the city. But of the 68,173 households that moved to a different region, just over half — 51.5 per cent, or 35,140 households — left the GTA altogether, while 33,033 households, or 48.5 per cent, resettled elsewhere within the region.
Simcoe County was the top choice for former GTA residents, attracting 3,651 households, or 10.4 per cent of all outward movers. Hamilton followed at 3.2 per cent, then Calgary at 3.1 per cent, Waterloo at 2.9 per cent, Greater Vancouver at 2 per cent, and Niagara Region at 1.9 per cent. A notable number also headed to smaller, more rural communities a few hours away: 1,174 households moved to Middlesex County and 1,101 to Wellington County.
Researchers used a mix of government demographic data, Statistics Canada sources and anonymized mobile device movement data to map where GTA residents are going and how frequently they move, offering a snapshot of shifting migration patterns.
Real estate professionals say this isn’t a sudden exodus, but a continuation of a long-running trend driven by housing affordability. “It’s not new at all. It’s something that we’ve seen for years. It’s called ‘driving till you qualify,’” said James Milonas, managing director at The Agency brokerage. “If your budget is $500,000 and that gets you a one-bedroom apartment downtown, but you need a three-bedroom freehold, you’re going to drive to Belleville, Hamilton, Niagara, or Sudbury.”
Milonas said the pattern has accelerated over the past decade, particularly as prices climbed and work became more flexible. Whenever Toronto’s market overheats, he said, buyers increasingly look to nearby cities and towns, especially younger families seeking space and a backyard instead of squeezing into a small condo.
Toronto real estate agent Michael Devanathan said the migration data matches what he’s hearing at the kitchen table. “In the last one or two years, I’m seeing a growing minority of sellers explicitly tell me they’re moving to Barrie, Waterloo, Hamilton, or even Calgary and Halifax,” he said. “Family sellers are cashing out on their GTA semi or townhouse and buying a detached with a bigger lot in those smaller markets.”
For business leaders, the trend is no surprise. Giles Gherson, president and CEO of the Toronto Region Board of Trade, pointed to a recent survey that found 65 per cent of respondents had considered leaving the GTA due in part to traffic congestion. “If you look at Calgary or Edmonton, there’s a sense that the economies are very strong there, and people go where they think there’s opportunity,” he said. “If we can’t get a handle on congestion and housing, then it’s going to be harder for people who come here to remain here.”
Despite the outflow, the GTA’s population is still growing, largely thanks to immigration. Toronto’s population has now surpassed seven million, fuelled by nearly 300,000 newcomers arriving in the last year alone. Jason Mercer of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said outward migration has been a consistent feature of the market rather than a new phenomenon. “The share of transactions being reported by our members outside of the GTA proper has been growing,” he noted, adding that pandemic-era remote and hybrid work gave many households more freedom to look beyond the urban core.
Mercer said policymakers need to stay focused on bringing more housing supply online, particularly the kinds of homes that bridge the gap between small condos and larger family houses. That pressure is reflected in what realtors describe as being “priced out,” where people who love Toronto simply cannot afford the space they need. “My clients are pretty much like, we eat, sleep, breathe and live Toronto… but no one wants to live in a 400-square-foot one-bedroom condo,” Milonas said.
Earlier this year, a CivicAction report described the working middle class — including nurses, teachers and other essential workers — as “the invisible poor,” warning that rising housing and living costs could push them out of the region altogether.
As more households weigh whether to stay or go, the question is increasingly personal: is it worth clinging to big-city life at the cost of space and security, or is it time to join the thousands “driving till they qualify” somewhere else?