If the BJP faces significant electoral setbacks in key states like Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jammu & Kashmir, it could potentially alter the internal power dynamics of the party, especially if the RSS pushes for a new BJP national president more aligned with its preferences. This could challenge the current Modi-Shah leadership that has centralized much of the party’s power over the past decade.
In such a scenario, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah might face increased scrutiny, particularly if the party begins to view their leadership as contributing to electoral losses. The INDIA Alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi, has been gaining momentum, with issues such as price rise becoming central to public discourse. If the BJP loses these key state elections, it could signal a shift in voter sentiment, leading to questions within the party about whether the Modi-Shah duo’s strategies are still effective.
Given that the NDA government is currently more reliant on its alliance partners than in the past, a situation Modi is less comfortable with, managing these partnerships may become a greater challenge if internal opposition grows. While an anti-Modi wave within the party could emerge, it would largely depend on the extent of electoral damage and whether the RSS and party cadre seek to realign leadership ahead of the next national election.
However, Modi has weathered crises before. He could pivot by focusing on public welfare, revisiting his earlier successes like social programs or pushing a unifying national narrative to regain trust. Still, the INDIA Alliance and a resurgent Congress could capitalize on these vulnerabilities, making the upcoming elections critical for the future of BJP’s leadership.