Pollster Warns Poilievre Must Adapt Strategy as Liberal Support Surges
The federal Conservatives remain in the lead but are bleeding support to the Liberals, following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, according to the latest Nanos Research ballot tracking released Tuesday.
“We do this every week, and what’s clear is that Conservative support is now hemorrhaging to the Liberals,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.
Nanos noted that just before Trudeau stepped down, the Conservatives held a 27-point advantage over the Liberals, standing at 47% to 20%. However, that lead has narrowed significantly to 38% to 30% as more voters shift their support.
Nanos attributes the Liberal resurgence to two key demographic shifts:
Women voters returning to the Liberals – After losing female support by the end of 2024, the party has seen a notable rebound among this group in recent months.
A resurgence in Quebec – With Quebec being a critical Liberal stronghold, recent gains in the province are essential for the party to remain competitive nationwide.
“This doesn’t mean the Conservatives will lose the seats they currently hold in Quebec,” Nanos explained. “But the shift in momentum favors the Liberals.”
As of February 7, Nanos tracking indicates that concerns over tariffs and U.S. President Donald Trump have skyrocketed, reshaping the political landscape.
“Canadians are increasingly focused on tariffs and Trump, and that’s where the Liberal government and leadership candidates have concentrated their efforts,” said Nanos.
He noted that Trudeau and the Liberals have capitalized on this, leveraging their messaging on economic security and trade relations to boost their appeal.
While Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre built momentum in 2024 by focusing on the cost-of-living crisis, Nanos suggests he needs to pivot his strategy.
“I think Poilievre must shift gears and focus more on tariffs,” said Nanos. “I’m not sure Canadians are worried about Arctic sovereignty,” he added, referencing Poilievre’s recent trip to Iqaluit, where he pledged to bolster Canada’s Arctic defence.
“If steel, aluminum, and the energy sector are under threat, and jobs are at risk, that’s what Canadians want to hear more about from Poilievre.”
Despite the Conservative lead shrinking, they still maintain an eight-point advantage. If an election were held today, Poilievre would still be the most likely winner.
However, Nanos cautioned that the race is far from over.
“What we do know is an election won’t be held today,” he said, emphasizing that Poilievre must adapt to maintain his edge.