After making rare inroads in Brampton during the 2025 federal election, the Conservative Party’s momentum in the city appears to be slipping, according to new projections from 338Canada.
The latest modelling suggests that if an election were held today, all six Brampton ridings would likely return to Liberal hands—marking a significant shift from last year’s tighter races and renewed Conservative optimism in the region.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had celebrated the party’s strongest showing in decades following the 2025 vote, including a breakthrough win in Brampton West. That victory, secured by Conservative MP Amarjeet Gill, ended years of Liberal dominance in the city.
However, the political landscape has evolved rapidly since then. Internal party developments, including a leadership review and multiple MP defections to the Liberals, have reshaped national dynamics—helping Prime Minister Mark Carney secure a majority government.
Now, updated projections indicate the Liberals have regained a commanding advantage across Brampton, with each riding categorized as “likely Liberal” by 338Canada.
In Brampton East, Maninder Sidhu is projected to strengthen his position, with Liberal support estimated at 52 per cent compared to 38 per cent for the Conservatives. Similar trends are seen in Brampton Centre, where Amandeep Sodhi is expected to retain her seat with a comfortable margin.
The most notable shift comes in Brampton West, where Gill’s 2025 upset victory is now under threat. Projections suggest the Liberals could reclaim the riding, with support edging ahead of the Conservatives and a significantly higher probability of winning.
Elsewhere, established Liberal MPs such as Sonia Sidhu and Ruby Sahota are projected to hold their seats with strong margins, while newer ridings like Brampton—Chinguacousy Park also show a clear Liberal advantage, with Shafqat Ali maintaining a dominant position.
While the projections are based on aggregated polling data rather than individual surveys, they point to a broader trend: the Liberal Party’s long-standing grip on Brampton may be reasserting itself after a brief period of Conservative gains.
For the Conservatives, the findings suggest that maintaining momentum in key suburban battlegrounds like Brampton will remain a significant challenge. For the Liberals, the numbers reinforce their continued strength in one of the GTA’s most politically important regions.
As the political climate continues to evolve, one thing is clear—Brampton remains a critical battleground, and any shift in voter sentiment here could carry broader implications for the national political landscape.