Moving Day at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational delivered a seismic shakeup at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, with Collin Morikawa surging to the top of the leaderboard after a stellar 5-under 67—the second-best score of Saturday—securing a one-shot lead at 10 under entering Sunday’s final round. As Shane Lowry and Wyndham Clark stumbled with matching 76s, Morikawa’s poise and precision positioned the two-time major champion as the man to beat, though a stacked field of contenders, led by Russell Henley at 9 under, promises a thrilling finale.
Morikawa, who last hoisted a PGA Tour trophy at the 2023 Zozo Championship, has now held a 54-hole lead in three consecutive years (2023, 2024, 2025)—a feat unmatched on Tour. A win tomorrow would end a 500-day drought, despite eight top-five finishes since his last victory. “I’ve gone longer [without a win],” Morikawa reflected post-round. “Last year, it never felt like I had my game to just go out and play golf. I was always fighting something. The guys winning constantly are playing free, and that’s how I’m going out tomorrow.”
Morikawa’s third-round charge was a clinic in ball-striking: 14 of 18 greens in regulation, birdies on three par-5s, and clutch 12-footers on Nos. 11 and 18. His lone blemish—a bogey on the par-3 14th—was his first since Round 1’s ninth hole. “He’s been sensational from tee to green all week,” noted CBS Sports’ Patrick McDonald. “That 67 felt like the highest score he could’ve shot today.” Morikawa leads the field in strokes gained approach (+3.75) and ranks fifth off the tee, per Web ID 5, but his putter—historically his Achilles’ heel in clutch moments—will be the X-factor Sunday.
Russell Henley matched Morikawa’s 67, climbing to 9 under with a masterclass on and around the greens, ranking second in strokes gained putting (+2.56). Corey Conners, at 8 under, held pace with Morikawa until a late bogey on 18 dropped him two back. Jason Day, rebounding from a first-round 76 with a 64 and a 70, sits at 7 under after a blazing finish—three straight birdies on Nos. 16-18. “If I can cut into the lead on the front nine and finish like today, you never know,” Day said, eyeing tougher winds forecast for Sunday (10-20 mph, per Web ID 5).
Leaderboard Snapshot
- 1. Collin Morikawa (-10): A tee-to-green juggernaut, seeking his seventh PGA Tour win.
- 2. Russell Henley (-9): One shot back, thriving with the flatstick.
- 3. Corey Conners (-8): Steady until a late slip, paired with Day Sunday.
- 4. Jason Day (-7): From cutline to contention, a dark horse with momentum.
- T5. Tony Finau, Michael Kim (-5): Four off the pace, needing a big move.
- T7. Andrew Novak, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry (-4): Novak’s day-low 65 keeps him alive; Lowry falters.
- T10. Rory McIlroy, Aaron Rai, Robert MacIntyre (-3): McIlroy’s 71 leaves him seven back.
The final pairing of Lowry and Clark unraveled. Lowry, the 36-hole leader at 8 under, bogeyed four times, including a three-putt on 16, dropping to 4 under. Clark, once at 6 under, mirrored Lowry’s 76, slipping to 2 under with a double-bogey on 8. Justin Thomas (74) and Keegan Bradley (76, with three doubles) also faded, while Ludvig Åberg’s 77—featuring a triple-bogey 8th—plummeted him to 1 under. “It was a day of survive-and-advance for some, and reverse for others,” McDonald observed.
Morikawa’s +100 odds (DraftKings) reflect his edge, but Henley (3-1) and Conners (11/2) loom large. Day (10-1) and longshots like Finau (35-1) and Lowry (75-1) could capitalize if winds spice up Bay Hill’s notoriously firm greens. Rory McIlroy, at 60-1, remains a fan favorite but needs a miracle after a pedestrian 71. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, the 2022 and 2024 champ, lurks at 1 under (90-1), seven shots adrift but never out of contention at Arnie’s Place.
Sunday’s forecast—partly cloudy, mid-80s, and gusty—could tilt the scales toward Morikawa’s iron play or Henley’s short-game wizardry. “This tournament will come down to high-leverage putts,” McDonald predicts. “If Morikawa connects, he’s a seven-time winner.” Coverage begins at 12:30 PM ET on Golf Channel, shifting to NBC/Peacock at 2:30 PM, with PGA Tour Live streaming featured holes (Nos. 2, 14, 17, 6).
Will Morikawa convert his third straight 54-hole lead, or will Bay Hill crown a new king? The Arnold Palmer Invitational’s red cardigan awaits.