Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Mexico City for a high-stakes 36-hour visit that could redefine Canada’s trade future as the clock ticks down on the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Carney will sit down with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Thursday to strengthen bilateral ties just as the Trump administration begins the formal process to review — and potentially renegotiate — the trade pact set to expire next June.
Public consultations launched this week by the U.S. Trade Representative mark the first step toward what experts expect will be a contentious reopening of CUSMA. “They’re starting with a big list and are going to shrink it down to a smaller list,” said Eric Miller of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, noting that Trump’s approach is likely to focus on tariffs, not a grand vision of North American collaboration.
For Canada, the stakes are enormous. Trump’s sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos have already shrunk Canada’s GDP by 1.6 per cent in Q2 2025, and Carney is under pressure to shield Canada’s economy from further shocks. Mexico, Canada’s third-largest trading partner with $56 billion in two-way trade last year, is seen as a natural ally and a way to diversify away from an increasingly unpredictable U.S.
Carney will sign a new strategic partnership with Sheinbaum to deepen cooperation, promote more frequent high-level contact, and expand opportunities in autos, agriculture, and infrastructure. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and U.S. trade lead Dominic LeBlanc are accompanying Carney, underscoring the importance of this mission.
Still, experts warn that cooperation won’t be simple. “There’s so much pressure right now pushing them away from each other as each one tries to secure preferential treatment from Washington,” said Duncan Wood of Hurst International Consulting. He adds that aligning policies on China could be key to presenting a united front when negotiations with Trump begin.
Carney will also highlight Canada’s economic ties with Mexico by visiting a Canadian Pacific Railway terminal to watch Canadian wheat being offloaded and hosting a reception for business leaders. Whether this trip results in a stronger trade alliance or reveals the limits of Canada-Mexico cooperation could shape the continent’s economic future.