New PM, New Lead: Liberals Surge in Ipsos Findings
Prime Minister Mark Carney has injected fresh vigor into the Liberal party, with a new Ipsos poll showing the Liberals pulling further ahead of the Conservatives since his arrival. The survey, released Tuesday exclusively for Global News by Ipsos Public Affairs, indicates that if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would claim 42 per cent of decided voter support, compared to 36 per cent for the Conservatives—a seven-point lead that’s widened in just three weeks.
Last month, Ipsos polling showed the Liberals narrowly overtaking the Conservatives for the first time in years, though within the margin of error. Now, with a lead exceeding the poll’s 3.8 per cent margin of error, the Liberals appear to be gaining serious traction. “They’re knocking on the door for a majority,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, pointing to a potential shift into “majority government territory.”
For years, since 2021, the Conservatives had dominated Ipsos polls, consistently outpacing the Liberals. That changed in February when the Liberals edged ahead, a trend that’s now accelerating under Carney’s leadership. Sworn in as prime minister on March 14 following Justin Trudeau’s resignation amid waning popularity, Carney—a former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor—has quickly reshaped the political landscape.
The poll also reveals shifts among other parties: the NDP slipped two points to 10 per cent, the Bloc Québécois held at six per cent, the Green Party dropped to two per cent, and the People’s Party stayed at three per cent. “Progressive voters are turning to Carney and the Liberals instead of Jagmeet Singh,” Bricker noted, suggesting the NDP has failed to position itself as a viable alternative.
Carney’s rise comes amid a U.S.-led trade war, with 25 per cent tariffs imposed on Canadian goods earlier this month and Canada retaliating with $30 billion in counter-tariffs. Facing steel, aluminum, and looming “reciprocal” tariffs from the U.S., Carney has accused Trump of targeting Canada’s economy with “unjustified” measures, warning of “dark days” ahead.
When asked who would make the best prime minister, 42 per cent of respondents picked Carney, outpacing Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre at 32 per cent. Singh trailed at 12 per cent, while Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and others garnered single-digit support. “Trudeau’s exit, Trump’s attacks, and a revitalized Liberal option have shifted voter sentiment,” Bricker explained.
Demographically, the Liberals are winning over voters aged 18-34 and 55+, while the Conservatives hold strong among the 35-54 age group. A reemerging gender gap shows women favoring the Liberals more than men, and young voters are flocking back to the party in droves. Regionally, the Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, with a commanding edge over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec.
“The swing has been enormous,” Bricker said, noting the Conservatives’ drop from highs of 45-46 per cent to their current 36 per cent. “I’ve never seen a shift this big in Canada’s political landscape.” With no election date set but speculation of an early call swirling, Carney’s Liberals appear poised to capitalize on their newfound momentum.
Courtesy Global News