Canada’s population is poised for significant long-term growth, potentially surpassing 57 million people by the year 2075, according to new projections released by Statistics Canada.
The projections, which span from 2025 to 2075, outline several possible growth scenarios, all of which point to a larger and more demographically complex country over the next half-century. Under a medium-growth scenario, Canada’s population — estimated at 41.7 million in mid-2025 — could rise to 57.4 million by 2075. A high-growth scenario suggests the population could swell to nearly 76 million, while even a low-growth outlook still forecasts an increase to about 44 million.
Statistics Canada emphasized that the projections are not forecasts but scenario-based estimates built on recent demographic trends and plausible future developments. These include persistently low fertility rates, shifting immigration policies, and changes to the number of temporary residents entering and leaving the country.
Regionally, Ontario and Quebec are expected to remain Canada’s most populous provinces through at least 2050, continuing to anchor the country’s demographic landscape. Alberta is projected to overtake British Columbia in population under most scenarios, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan are also expected to increase their share of the national population.
In contrast, Atlantic provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia are projected to see their proportion of the population decline over the next 25 years, reflecting ongoing demographic and migration challenges.
The long-term growth outlook comes amid a notable short-term shift. Canada recorded its largest population decline on record late last year, driven largely by changes to federal immigration and temporary resident policies. Between July and October 2025, the country’s population fell by roughly 76,000 people.
That decline was primarily linked to a sharp reduction in non-permanent residents. Their numbers dropped by more than 176,000 during the three-month period, the largest decrease since comparable data has been tracked. As of Oct. 1, 2025, Canada was home to about 2.8 million non-permanent residents, down from roughly three million earlier in the year.
The drop coincided with a record number of temporary permits expiring, while far fewer new permits were issued during the same period.
Despite these short-term fluctuations, Statistics Canada’s projections suggest that Canada’s long-term demographic trajectory remains upward, shaped by policy decisions, migration patterns, and broader global forces that will continue to redefine the country in the decades ahead.