Ottawa — After years of steep increases, Canada’s Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) program appears to be stabilizing, with new data from several provinces showing a marked slowdown in growth. The trend signals the program is transitioning from its rapid expansion phase into a period of long-term equilibrium.
For years, the number of assisted deaths in Canada grew by over 30 percent annually. That trajectory shifted in 2023, when the national increase slowed to 15.9 percent, followed by just 7.5 percent in 2024. In Ontario and Quebec — provinces that account for the largest share of MAiD cases — growth rates have now fallen below 7 percent. Alberta and British Columbia are showing similar steady declines, indicating a national trend toward stabilization.
Experts say this pattern reflects a classic S-curve seen in social and technological adoption: an initial period of rapid uptake, followed by a plateau as the system reaches maturity. Projections based on logistic growth models suggest MAiD cases will level off around 19,000 deaths annually by the early 2030s, with year-over-year changes under 1 percent.
This data challenges earlier claims that the MAiD program was “spiralling out of control.” Instead, it paints a picture of a regulated system finding its steady-state — one that reflects consistent, informed choices by individuals within a legal medical framework.
Potential policy changes may cause temporary fluctuations. For example, Quebec’s advance request provisions could lead to a short-term increase in cases as they take effect, while the upcoming inclusion of mental disorders as a sole qualifying condition is expected to add only marginal numbers annually. National adoption of advance requests could extend the growth curve slightly but would mostly make the system more equitable for patients with degenerative conditions such as dementia.
Ultimately, the slowdown underscores that the surge in MAiD participation was a temporary phase of early adoption, not a sign of runaway expansion. As the program reaches its plateau, it is solidifying its place as a stable and predictable component of Canada’s end-of-life care system.